From vxharra at hotmail.com Thu Nov 2 20:04:28 2006 From: vxharra at hotmail.com (Valon Xharra) Date: Fri, 03 Nov 2006 01:04:28 +0000 Subject: [NYC-L] Interesting talks at Columbia University Message-ID: Below are a couple of interesting talks. Write me if you want more details. Valoni Wednesday, November 8th 6:30 pm Room TBA "Independent Again: Montenegro and the Challenges Ahead" Ambassador Branislav Srdanovic Former Permanent Representative of the FRY to the UN & Alex Grigor'ev Roinishvili Director, Western Balkans Program Project on Ethnic Relations, Princeton, NJ -------------------------------------------------- Tuesday, November 14th 12-1:30pm 1501 International Affairs Building "Kosova Independence and its Reflections on Developments in the Balkans" Hashim Thaci President, Democratic Party of Kosova _________________________________________________________________ Try the next generation of search with Windows Live Search today! http://imagine-windowslive.com/minisites/searchlaunch/?locale=en-us&source=hmtagline From vxharra at hotmail.com Mon Nov 6 13:50:28 2006 From: vxharra at hotmail.com (Valon Xharra) Date: Mon, 06 Nov 2006 18:50:28 +0000 Subject: [NYC-L] Balkan related events at Columbia University Message-ID: Wednesday, November 8th 12-1:30 pm 1302 IAB "EUrosis: An Analysis of EU Discourse in Slovenia" Mitja Velikonja, University of Ljubljana ******************************************************************** Wednesday, November 8th 6:30 pm Harriman Institute Forum "Independent Again: Montenegro and the Challenges Ahead" Ambassador Branislav Srdanovic Former Permanent Representative of the FRY to the UN & Alex Grigor'ev Roinishvili Director, Western Balkans Program Project on Ethnic Relations, Princeton, NJ ******************************************************************* Monday, November 13th 12-1:30pm 1219 IAB "On Cannibals and Europeans: What a Serb Learned in Africa" Zoran Milutinovic School of Slavonic and East European Studies University College, London ******************************************************************** Tuesday, November 14th 12-1:30pm 1501 IAB "Kosova Independence and its Reflections on Developments in the Balkans" Hashim Thaci President, Democratic Party of Kosova ******************************************************************** Tuesday, December 5th 12-1:30pm 1219 IAB "Rationality and Emotion in the Reconstruction of Balkan States" Roger Petersen, M.I.T. _________________________________________________________________ All-in-one security and maintenance for your PC. Get a free 90-day trial! http://clk.atdmt.com/MSN/go/msnnkwlo0050000002msn/direct/01/?href=http://www.windowsonecare.com/?sc_cid=msn_hotmail From hakaj at un.org Thu Nov 30 09:54:03 2006 From: hakaj at un.org (Aferdita Hakaj) Date: Thu, 30 Nov 2006 09:54:03 -0500 Subject: [NYC-L] =?iso-8859-1?q?Fw=3A_EU/Eastern_Europe_politics=3A_Kosovo?= =?iso-8859-1?q?_=97another_Balkan_crisis_-_EIU_Viewswire=2C_28/11/06?= Message-ID: FYI! Aferdita Hakaj CERF Secretariat OCHA, United Nations Room S-1878 Tel: +1 917 367 9193 Fax: +1 917 367 2332 ----- Forwarded by Aferdita Hakaj/OCHA/NY on 30/11/2006 09:54 AM ----- To: Severine Rey/OCHA/NY at OCHA, Wojtek Wilk/OCHA/NY at OCHA, Louise.Agersnap at undp.org, kai.stabell at undp.org, Rachel Scott Leflaive/OCHA/GE at OCHA, hpeugeot at unicef.org, hakaj at un.org From: OCHA-Early Warning/OCHA/NY Date: 11/28/2006 02:28PM Subject: EU/Eastern Europe politics: Kosovo?another Balkan crisis - EIU Viewswire, 28/11/06 EW FLASH EU/Eastern Europe politics: Kosovo?another Balkan crisis EIU Viewswire; EU/Eastern Europe politics: Kosovo?another Balkan crisis November 28th 2006 COUNTRY BRIEFING FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT A decision on the status of Kosovo is nearing, despite delays caused by deep differences among the major powers. Independence is widely regarded as inevitable and perhaps imminent, but such an outcome?particularly one involving UN membership?is by no means certain. Moreover, the outcome is guaranteed to be messy, contested and to generate perhaps considerable regional turbulence. Despite the fact that the US and Russia have perhaps the decisive input into how the Kosovo endgame will play out, major EU countries have shared responsibility for the process and the EU will be left with the financial, political and effectively military responsibility of handling the ensuing situation. All signs are that there appears to be a striking complacency inside the EU about what lies ahead. Europe?s failings The problem is in large part of the EU?s own making and due to a combination of four factors: hubris, miscalculation, mismanagement and the EU?s political and institutional crisis. First, there was the conceit that the EU could impose a solution and easily manage the consequences of decisions that involved a change in international borders in very short order. Second, the EU underestimated Serbia?s determination to hold on to the territory and Russia?s opposition to a Western-imposed solution that revises the Helsinki Final Act and sets a precedent that is deeply troubling for Moscow. Third, Kosovo under European management?albeit under the UN and NATO umbrellas?has made little progress on security, the protection of minorities or economic stabilisation. The EU has done little or nothing since 1999 to try to encourage the Serbs and Kosovo Albanians to explore solutions within a framework of existing borders. From an early stage, Europeans seemed to decide that independence was the only option. Kosovo Albanian leaders acted accordingly. Independence, however, threatens to open a can of worms because it contradicts the accepted practice in the former Yugoslavia and Soviet Union that only constituent republics had the right to self-determination. There have been no exceptions. Finally, the EU takes on this problem at precisely the time that it has effectively lost its main foreign policy tool: holding out a realistic prospect of EU membership. The credibility of the accession process has been gravely, if not yet terminally, weakened in the wake of increasing ?enlargement fatigue? within the EU and a consequent string of negative messages over the past year. The delayed decision The UN special envoy for the Kosovo negotiations, Martti Ahtisaari, announced in early November that he would delay his recommendations on Kosovo until after Serbia's parliamentary elections which have been scheduled for January 21st 2007. This has been portrayed as an attempt to help democratic political forces in Serbia and prevent a popular backlash that could propel the extreme nationalist Serbian Radical Party (SRS) to power. Yet this explanation is highly questionable. To present the decision in these terms is actually a campaign gift to the Radicals. Even if the next Serbian government is dominated by democrats and reformists, an unfavourable decision on Kosovo would destabilise what is likely to be a very fractious and fragile coalition. The most plausible explanation for the delay is that Mr Ahtisaari has not yet been able to garner sufficient support in the six-nation Contact Group for his proposals and has thus not been able to fulfil a pledge that Kosovo's status will be resolved before the end of 2006. An independent Kosovo has been the preferred option for the US and UK (openly stated from some time in the case of the latter) from the outset. Although other Western Contact Group members (France, Germany and Italy) may have been less enthusiastic at various times, and there have been some recent reports about some getting cold feet, a split among the Western countries in the Contact Group is unlikely. The key difference is between Russia and the major Western powers. Russia has repeatedly stated, in increasingly unequivocal terms, that there can be no Kosovo solution without the agreement of Serbia. Moscow has also argued that independence would inevitably set a precedent for breakaway regions in the CIS. Russia?s position has hardened throughout 2006. President Vladimir Putin has on several occasions warned that independence would set an undesirable precedent, and he has also stated that Russia would if necessary use its veto in the UN Security Council. There is speculation that horsetrading is going on between the US and Russia on a range of issues, including Kosovo. However, Russia has gone so far and been so explicit in its rejection of an imposed solution, that it may find it hard to back down or reverse its position eve if it were given some incentive to do so. What will Ahtisaari propose? The exact details of the plan by Mr Ahtisaari remain to be seen. The document will contain a lot about human and minority rights, the decentralisation of local government, property rights, constitutional organisation and elections, the international civil and military international presence. But all this is a sideshow compared with the key issue of where sovereignty resides. Various media reports and alleged diplomatic leaks point to the following outline of what might be in his report. Mr Ahtisaari will not mention the word independence, but nor will he mention Serbia, thus setting the stage for UN Security Council Resolution 1244 to be superseded and Serbian sovereignty over the province to be abrogated. There would be an interim stage before independence?of several months to several years?in which Kosovo would be an EU protectorate. Kosovo would during this period have only limited sovereign powers (no UN membership, no army, and no ministry of foreign affairs). Some of the limitations on Kosovo?s sovereignty?a possible ban on union with Albania, the special position of minorities?would persist even after formal independence. If all this is true, the recommendation would favour a delayed or ?managed? independence, which would keep Kosovo under an international protectorate for a while longer. It would also divest Serbia of sovereignty over the province and make clear that Kosovo would after an interim period become independent. Left hanging In terms of gaining broad international acceptance and legitimacy, Mr Ahtisaari?s proposals would not be worth much unless they are followed by a revision of UN Security Council Resolution 1244. As noted, Russian opposition has been strong and Russia might be joined by China, nervous about precedents for Tibet and Taiwan. The US and Europeans want to avoid a clash with Russia over Kosovo. But it appears that the only way to avoid a deadlocked Security Council is for Russia to drastically reverse its position, for some of the western Contact Group members to desist from pushing for Kosovo independence, or to defer the decision for some time. It is highly unlikely that at this stage the Contact Group would abandon its position that partition is not an option. In case of a UN deadlock, the Kosovo government, perhaps with a green light from London and Washington, might declare independence and seek bilateral recognitions. A unilateral declaration of independence would cause a diplomatic crisis and international splits, and must surely be viewed as a nightmare scenario in Brussels. The EU role in Kosovo If there is a new UN Security Council Resolution authorising an EU mission, the international presence in Kosovo will have a different legal basis from Resolution 1244. But in practical terms, there would probably not be much difference. And even if UNMIK continues, the EU?which has most heavily financed and manned UNMIK?will continue to play the main role. The EU will for some time to come almost certainly have to retain far greater responsibility in Kosovo than it may have wanted to. The record so far is hardly an encouraging one. The province has descended into an economic mess. Income per head is only about US$1,000 and real GDP is probably falling. In its own October report on the Western Balkans, the EU paints an extremely bleak picture of Kosovo. Administrative capacity, the civil service and the judiciary are all to be found severely deficient. With donor support declining, the report describes a fragile economy, with high unemployment, lack of respect for property rights, poor infrastructure and unreliable power supply. It also complains of no progress in fighting organised crime. Reasons to be fearful Serbia?s new constitution, reasserting sovereignty over Kosovo, makes it impossible for any Serbian government to recognise an independent Kosovo for the foreseeable future. Without this, it seems inconceivable that regional relations will be marked by the necessary cooperation to guarantee stability. If the province becomes sovereign, copycat behaviour is possible, sooner or later?not least in the region?s fragile states of Bosnia and Hercegovina and Macedonia. Under practically any type of settlement northern Kosovo looks set to remain effectively under Serbian control, creating a risk of outbreaks of fighting and a new ?frozen conflict? in the region. Finally, there is a distinct risk of an exodus of the remaining Serb population from other areas of Kosovo, which could destabilise Serbia and possibly the wider region. Another Balkan crisis is looming, resulting in large part from the EU's mismanagement, complacency and misjudgements related to the Kosovo status issue. Seemingly the only remaining issue at this late stage concerns what the intensity and duration of the crisis will be. EU enlargement commissioner Ollie Rehn has a fondness for rail metaphors in describing the EU's relations with the Balkans. The question now is whether the EU is heading for a prolonged derailment or a full-scale crash. The Economist Intelligence Unit Source: ViewsWire ? 2006 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. An Economist Group business. All rights reserved. About us | About ViewsWire | Contact us | Privacy statement | Terms of access | Help - . - . - NOTE: The article/analysis above is posted on the Early Warning Flash Database. The News Flash Database is a Lotus Notes-based information platform that contains humanitarian related news and analyses sifted daily from various open and password protected sources. OCHA colleagues may access this database by following these steps: On your Lotus Notes, click File→ Database→ Open→ Data/OCHA/NY→ EW FLASH. For general inquiries related to OCHA's early warning activities or if you wish to be taken off our mailing list, please send an email to ocha-earlywarning at un.org. For in-depth information related to early warning developments from a particular country/region or about a certain topic, you may directly contact one of our EWU staff. Please note that EWU primarily covers and monitors emerging crises in countries without an OCHA presence. David Carden (Chief of Unit) tel.: 1 212 963 5699 e-mail: carden at un.org Megan Scott (Asia-Pacific) tel.: 1 917 367 5164 e-mail: scott3 at un.org Lily Adhiambo (Horn of Africa, Central and East Africa, West Africa) tel.: 1 917 367 9104 e-mail: adhiambo at un.org Severine Rey (Latin America, Middle East, Central Asia and Europe) tel.: 1 917 367 5336 e-mail: rey at un.org Magano Ickua (Southern Africa) UN-Fullbright Fellow tel: 1 917 367 2098 e-mail: ickua at un.org Rogie Villalobos (EW News Flash and daily monitoring) tel.: 1 917 367 2380 e-mail: villalobosr at un.org -------------- next part -------------- HTML attachment scrubbed and removed From hakaj at un.org Thu Nov 30 09:54:09 2006 From: hakaj at un.org (Aferdita Hakaj) Date: Thu, 30 Nov 2006 09:54:09 -0500 Subject: [NYC-L] Fw: Kosovo: Entering the home stretch (Internation Security Network, 29/11/06) Message-ID: ----- Forwarded by Aferdita Hakaj/OCHA/NY on 30/11/2006 09:53 AM ----- To: Severine Rey/OCHA/NY at OCHA, Wojtek Wilk/OCHA/NY at OCHA, Louise.Agersnap at undp.org, kai.stabell at undp.org, Rachel Scott Leflaive/OCHA/GE at OCHA, hpeugeot at unicef.org, hakaj at .un.org From: OCHA-Early Warning/OCHA/NY Date: 11/29/2006 01:09PM Subject: Kosovo: Entering the home stretch (Internation Security Network, 29/11/06) Security Watch - breaking news from around the world and intelligent analysis of the key issues (http://www.isn.ethz.ch) 29 November 2006 Kosovo: Entering the home stretch The international community has put off settling Kosovo's final status until shortly after the Serbian elections slated for 21 January 2007. But the delay seems unlikely to affect the outcome, which will in all probability be a conditional independence. By Patrick Moore for RFE/RL (29/11/06) By late 2005, the leadership of the UN, at the recommendation of special envoy Kai Eide, concluded that leaving Kosovo's political status unresolved had become a major source of problems for the province and the region as a whole. The continuing uncertainty had already played a role in the triggering and spread of violence among some of the ethnic Albanian majority in March 2004 and remained a potential source of future unrest. The lack of clarity also discouraged the investment necessary to deal with large-scale unemployment and jump-start the economy among people who have often displayed sharp business acumen when provided with a clear legal framework, as Kosovars have done in countries like Croatia, Switzerland or Germany. Urged to be patient The decision on Kosovo's final status had been expected by the end of this year, and many Kosovars became apprehensive when the postponement was announced recently. But the delay seems designed only to minimize the effect of the issue on the Serbian vote and is probably unlikely to impact on the substance of the UN's final statement on status. That would appear to be a form of independence - which is the only outcome acceptable to the 90 percent Albanian majority - albeit with a continuing foreign presence to ensure the safety and rights of the minorities, particularly the Serbs, and their cultural institutions. The EU will most likely replace the UN at the heart of the foreign civilian presence, but is expected to have a less powerful mandate than it currently does in Bosnia-Herzegovina. UN envoy for Kosovo Martti Ahtisaari is expected to make his announcement regarding the province's status in February 2007. Numerous media reports have suggested that US and British diplomats have recently reassured Kosovar Albanian leaders that just a little more patience will pay dividends for them and warned them against any hasty moves, such as issuing a widely rumored unilateral declaration of independence if the decision on the final status continues to be delayed. Those media reports indicate that the Kosovars have accepted the assurances of Washington and London. 'Expectations are high' Lest anyone forget the stakes involved in finalizing Kosovo's status, Prime Minister Agim Ceku wrote in "The Wall Street Journal" of 20 November that "expectations in Kosovo are high [?] It is ready for independence, and now is not the time to stop the clock." He added that "we need to keep the process of statehood on track. Kosovo needs clarity to complete reforms and to attract vital international investments, but also so that our own people - and especially our Serb minority - can escape the debilitating worries and uncertainty and start to build a future. Their home and future are in Kosovo." Ceku argued that "the biggest problem in the western Balkans is economic malaise [?] Belgrade is not interested in investing in the development of Kosovo, and Kosovo is not interested in a political union with Serbia. But we are interested in developing a productive bilateral partnership with Serbia, just as we're doing with our other neighbors." He believes that "social and economic progress in the region will be the big losers if we don't make the bold step forward to independence. The entire western Balkan region needs a kick start in order to catch the EU train and catch up with the awesome economic growth of our EU-bound neighbors, Romania and Bulgaria." He noted that "we have a young population and a positive birthrate. Given the shortages in the EU labor market due to negative demographic trends, Kosovo can help fill the void. To do so, we need to retrain our work force. Hence we're now investing in education." Ceku also reminded Brussels that it cannot afford to forget its goal of "a Europe whole and free." He might have added that it is the question of Euro-Atlantic integration, perhaps more so than even the issue of Kosovo's final status, that will be the determining factor for the peace and prosperity of the entire region. Copyright (c) 2006. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave. NW, Washington DC 20036. Funded by the US Congress. Printed from http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?id=16979 Online version provided by the International Relations and Security Network A public service run by the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich ? 1996-2004 *********************** NOTE: For general inquiries related to OCHA's early warning activities or if you wish to be taken off our mailing list, please send an email to ocha-earlywarning at un.org. For in-depth information related to early warning developments from a particular country/region or about a certain topic, you may directly contact one of our EWU staff. Please note that EWU primarily covers and monitors emerging crises in countries without an OCHA presence. David Carden (Chief of Unit) tel.: 1 212 963 5699 e-mail: carden at un.org Megan Scott (Asia-Pacific) tel.: 1 917 367 5164 e-mail: scott3 at un.org Lily Adhiambo (Horn of Africa, Central and East Africa, West Africa) tel.: 1 917 367 9104 e-mail: adhiambo at un.org Severine Rey (Latin America, Middle East, Central Asia and Europe) tel.: 1 917 367 5336 e-mail: rey at un.org Magano Ickua (Southern Africa) UN-Fullbright Fellow tel: 1 917 367 2098 e-mail: ickua at un.org Rogie Villalobos (EW News Flash and daily monitoring) tel.: 1 917 367 2380 e-mail: villalobosr at un.org -------------- next part -------------- HTML attachment scrubbed and removed From hakaj at un.org Thu Nov 30 11:07:55 2006 From: hakaj at un.org (Aferdita Hakaj) Date: Thu, 30 Nov 2006 11:07:55 -0500 Subject: [NYC-L] Fw: PROPOSED FLAG FOR THE STATE OF KOSOVA/PROPOZIM PER FLAMURIN SHTETEROR TE KOSOVES Message-ID: FYI! ----- Message from " Albanian American Civic League" on Thu, 30 Nov 2006 01:05:32 -0500 ---- Subject: PROPOSED FLAG FOR THE STATE OF KOSOVA/PROPOZIM PER FLAMURIN SHTETEROR TE KOSOVES Dear Friend, On the occasion of Albanian Flag Day, we would like you to see the Civic League's proposal for a flag for the independent state of Kosova. Please click here for the English version and here for the Albanian. Kliko ketu per shqip. Sincerely, Shirley Cloyes DioGuardi Joe DioGuardi Balkan Affairs Adviser President To unsubscribe click here. AACL | P.O. Box 70 | Ossining | NY | 10562 -------------- next part -------------- HTML attachment scrubbed and removed -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: not available Type: image/gif Size: 9037 bytes Desc: not available Url : http://www.alb-net.com/pipermail/nyc-l/attachments/20061130/b687d09a/attachment.gif From vbelegu at hotmail.com Thu Nov 30 14:11:52 2006 From: vbelegu at hotmail.com (Visar Belegu) Date: Thu, 30 Nov 2006 13:11:52 -0600 Subject: [NYC-L] Fw: PROPOSED FLAG FOR THE STATE OF KOSOVA/PROPOZIM PER FLAMURIN SHTETEROR TE KOSOVES In-Reply-To: Message-ID: We already have a flag, one that does a excellent job of capturing the heart and spirit of the Albanian people all over the world, especially the Albanian citizens of the new state of Kosova. From hakaj at un.org Thu Nov 30 15:02:06 2006 From: hakaj at un.org (Aferdita Hakaj) Date: Thu, 30 Nov 2006 15:02:06 -0500 Subject: [NYC-L] Fw: PROPOSED FLAG FOR THE STATE OF KOSOVA/PROPOZIM PER FLAMURIN SHTETEROR TE KOSOVES In-Reply-To: Message-ID: Visar, Thanks for your thoughts. However, I was nor supporting or condemning the flag mentioned below. Just thought it was an interesting development and could be publicized. Best, Aferdita "Visar Belegu" Sent by: nyc-l-bounces at alb-net.com 30/11/2006 02:11 PM Please respond to "Albanians in New York City Discussion Forum \(New York City, USA\)" To nyc-l at alb-net.com cc Subject Re: [NYC-L] Fw: PROPOSED FLAG FOR THE STATE OF KOSOVA/PROPOZIM PER FLAMURIN SHTETEROR TE KOSOVES === NYC-L: New York City Discussion Forum === We already have a flag, one that does a excellent job of capturing the heart and spirit of the Albanian people all over the world, especially the Albanian citizens of the new state of Kosova. ____________________________________________________ NYC-L: A discussion and information list of the Albanian community in the New York City Metro Area. To post to the list: NYC-L at alb-net.com For more information: http://www.alb-net.com/mailman/listinfo/nyc-l -------------- next part -------------- HTML attachment scrubbed and removed