[NYC-L] Carlucci (Carlyle Grp) Op Ed-NYTimes

[Jeton Ademaj]

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/22/opinion/22carlucci.html

February 22, 2005
OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR
The War We Haven't Finished
By FRANK C. CARLUCCI

ashington

WASHINGTON isn't exactly short of foreign policy priorities these days, but 
before rushing into a list of new tasks for the president's second term, I 
would like to suggest sorting out an old one: Kosovo.

The world reacted in horror six years ago when the Serbian regime of 
Slobodan Milosevic embarked on an ethnic cleansing operation against 
Kosovo's Albanians, forcing 700,000 people, nearly half the population, to 
flee the province. Reports of massacres and images of mileslong lines of 
refugees fleeing into neighboring Albania and Macedonia compelled the world 
to act. The NATO air campaign against Serbia that followed convinced 
Belgrade to give up its brutal assault, and Kosovo was put under United 
Nations administration.

And so it remains to this day: an international protectorate, legally part 
of Serbia, but with a 90 percent ethnic Albanian population that would 
sooner go to war than submit to Belgrade's rule. Kosovars seek an 
independent state, and the seemingly endless delays over final-status talks 
are only causing deep frustration and resentment.

Their discontent is not simply a matter of hurt pride over national 
sovereignty; Kosovo's unsettled international status has serious 
repercussions for daily life. Because it is under United Nations 
administration, Kosovo is in economic limbo: it cannot be part of the 
international bank transfer system, it is ineligible for sovereign lending 
from development banks, and it can attract few foreign investors. With 70 
percent unemployment, the province is being starved of the commerce it badly 
needs.

Perhaps most important, the continuing uncertainty creates widespread 
insecurity among Kosovo's ethnic Albanians, who live with a constant sense 
of dread that they could return to Serb rule. It is essentially a siege 
mentality, and it could explode into violence at any time.

This is what happened last March, when Albanians rioted, killing at least 20 
and destroying hundreds of Serbian houses and churches. Of course, mounting 
frustration cannot excuse or justify such a rampage, but the events clearly 
demonstrated that United Nations administration is not working.

With spring approaching, a repeat performance looks increasingly likely. But 
this time it would probably be far worse: Kosovo's Serbs may well ask 
Belgrade to intervene to protect them, which could result in a return to 
open war in the Balkans. Under these circumstances, the United Nations 
mission would probably evacuate, leaving behind the remnants of the NATO-led 
military force and the Kosovo Police Service to maintain security. These 
forces are not up to the job, and the chaos would be horrible.

How can we avoid such a nightmare? The only solution that makes long-term 
sense is full independence for Kosovo, and the only question that remains is 
how to get there.

The best approach would be for Washington and its five partners in the 
so-called Contact Group - Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Russia - to 
initiate a process for a final settlement, or Kosovo Accord. (Something 
along these lines was proposed last month by the International Crisis Group, 
an independent conflict prevention organization.)

First the powers would have to establish a timeline and some ground rules. 
The goal would have to be independence for the entire province, and all 
other options - partition, or union with Albania or slivers of other 
neighboring states where ethnic Albanians live - would be off the table from 
the outset. Given the events of last March, the Kosovo Albanians would be 
informed that that the pace of their progress toward independence will be 
set by their treatment of Serbs and other minorities.

The drafting process could begin as soon as the United Nations completes its 
assessment of the Kosovo government this year. Then the Kosovars could start 
writing a constitution. The new state would have to agree to a few strong 
guarantees to protect the rights of its minorities - including the presence 
of international judges on its higher courts and a multinational monitoring 
presence. Eventually, an international conference and a referendum within 
Kosovo would add the final stamps of approval. If all goes well, this could 
be wrapped up by mid-2006.

Getting Security Council approval, or even unanimity within the Contact 
Group, for this approach could prove tough. Russia sees itself as a 
protector of Serbia, and could thwart the process. The United States should 
counter by bringing along as many countries in the European Union as are 
willing to join us in formally recognizing an independent Kosovo, and hope 
the Russians accede to the majority will.

It's understandable, considering the events of the last four years, that 
Kosovo has been left hanging. But the situation is simply too tense to wait 
around forever.


Frank C. Carlucci, secretary of defense from 1987 to 1989, is chairman 
emeritus of the Carlyle Group, an investment firm.