[AMCC-News] MACEDONIA: ALBANIAN CENSUS FEARS (IWPR)

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WELCOME TO IWPR'S BALKAN CRISIS REPORT, No. 375, October 21, 2002

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MACEDONIA: ALBANIAN CENSUS FEARS - Albanian minority fears its numbers may
be underestimated in the forthcoming census. Saso Ordanoski reports from
Skopje.

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MACEDONIA: ALBANIAN CENSUS FEARS

Albanian minority fears its numbers may be underestimated in the
forthcoming census.

By Saso Ordanoski in Skopje

Officially it's just a matter of counting heads but Macedonia's census
next month has strong political overtones. The most sensitive question is
just how many of the country's 2.1 million people are ethnic Albanians.

Previous estimates of 22.7 per cent are strongly disputed by the Albanian
community, with some saying the true figure may be between 30 and 45 per
cent. One of the biggest headaches in preparing for the census has been to
ensure a proper ethnic balance between the 9,012 pollsters.

A total of 45 international monitors from more than 30 European countries
will supervise the polling. They are led by a steering committee
representing the European Commission, the Council of Europe, the UN's
Economic Commission for Europe and the OSCE.  It is headed by Photis
Nanopoulos, director of EUROSTAT - Statistical Office of the European
Community.

The cost of the exercise, to be conducted over the first two weeks of
November, is estimated at eight million euros. First draft results are
expected in January 2003 and it will take a further 18 months to digest
the findings.

Both Macedonians and Albanians had wanted citizens living abroad to
participate in the census, but have been overruled by international
officials.

Polling was supposed to take place last year but the Albanian uprising was
then raging. The Ohrid Agreement that ended the fighting in August 2001
stipulated that an internationally monitored census should go ahead.

Irena Gjuzelova, spokesperson for EU envoy Allan Le Roy, told IWPR, "A
census is needed, among other things, to help formulate government policy.
By signing the Ohrid Agreement, all sides have agreed that no party would
contest the results."

In a general election last month, Macedonians threw out the old government
and a new one will not be established until the end of October. "This
should not influence the conduct of the census," said Gjorgji Spasov,
general secretary of the ethnically Macedonian Social-Democratic Alliance
of Macedonia, SDSM, which now is the strongest party in parliament.

Previous censuses in 1991 and in 1994 were disputed by Albanian
politicians. In 1991, they boycotted the entire proceedings on the grounds
that there were not enough Albanian pollsters and not enough use of their
language in questionnaires.

In 1994, the census was monitored by the Council of Europe and the
European Commission. Most of the Albanian concerns were then addressed but
it was boycotted in the predominantly Albanian city of Debar.

The international monitors issued a statement in November 1996 saying, "We
consider that the final results of the 1994 census give a clear and
reliable picture of the demographic, economic and social situation of the
country. The figures referring to ethnic affiliation and religion reflect
the answers given by respondents of their own free will."

Nevertheless, Albanians refused to accept the census, which found that
they made up only 22.7 percent of the population.

A well-informed EU diplomat told IWPR, "We are trying to explain that a
census is a technical operation that counts residents, not specific
political categories. So far the preparations are going well although some
problems still need to be addressed."

Nevertheless, the political dimension means that party leaders have to be
consulted. The September election brought a major victory among the
Albanian population for the Democratic Union for Integration, DUI, whose
leaders were largely former guerrilla fighters.

"DUI is a new and relatively inexperienced political party and not very
well informed. For instance, they insist that 22.7 per cent of enumerators
should be ethnic Albanians," the EU diplomat said.

Rizvan Sulejmani, designated DUI spokesman on census issues, told IWPR the
lack of an established government induced the state census commission to
show insufficient interest in the preparations.

Out of 9,012 pollsters, around 1,720 are Albanian-speaking. And of the 39
regional census commissions, Albanians are proportionally represented in
15 of them.

"We are afraid of numbers being manipulated in census commissions where
Albanian representation is not adequate," said Sulejmani.

The EU diplomat said,  "It is a problem finding enough qualified experts
from the minorities for these temporary jobs. The biggest problem is that
there are no ethnic Albanians permanently employed at the state
statistical office."

Macedonian observers said real manipulation would occur only during the
collection of data if regional commissions were weak. But they insist that
the overall influence on numbers would not be significant.

Three types of questionnaires are being used, one in the Macedonian
language only, one in Macedonian and Albanian and one in Macedonian and
the Turkish, Serbian, Vlach and Roma languages.

"We want to approach ethnic participants in the language they best
understand," said Tatjana Mitevska, spokesperson for the state census
commission. "Of course, all enumerators must speak the official Macedonian
language."

One of the criticisms of the census is that it doesn't provide the public
with enough information about its purpose.

In response, the US organisation IREX and the Association of Journalists
of Macedonia, AJM, are working together on training journalists who will
cover the census. More than 200 reporters from different ethnic
backgrounds have taken part in special workshops.

"The census is one of the most important operations in society," said Saso
Colakovski, general secretary of AJM. "That is why in our view it was
important for journalists to understand the whole process."

Colakovski said he had no doubt the census would be successful. He
reported a high degree of public enthusiasm, including Albanians.  Both
Rizvan Sulejmani from the DUI and Gjorgji Spasov from the SDSM assured
IWPR that they will accept the final results if confirmed by international
monitors.

Saso Ordanoski is IWPR project coordinator in Macedonia and the editor of
Forum magazine