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List: Alst-L[ALST-L] book: American Confusion from Vietnam to KosovoWilliam R. Taylor williamtaylor at neca.comTue May 15 09:11:15 EDT 2001
To: Alst-l Subject: American Confusion from Vietnam to Kosovo Simulation of military or political decision processes Apologies for cross posting. Kosovo War Predictions Test Forecasting Model A new book, American Confusion from Vietnam to Kosovo: Coping with Chaos in High Places, presents a model of the dynamics of confusion in governments and corporations. The model permits the user to organize data from any complex array of factors, and predict What-if scenarios. Fuzzy cognitive maps are calculated recursively using common spreadsheet software. NATO/Serbia Predictions Published on Internet The model received its ultimate test in forecasting political and military events during and after the US/NATO war against Serbia. I published these predictions in real time in 1999 on a web site, where visitors and now, readers of American Confusion decide for themselves which predictions were borne out by subsequent events in the war and its aftermath. Method Useful to Military; Corporations; Many Countries That original web site attracted visitors from universities, the military, and non-governmental organizations, from over fifty countries. The model in American Confusion could be adapted to such applications as war gaming, economic forecasting, long range corporate or governmental planning, political strategizing. Users can combine the approach with priority-setting and other organizational planning methods. The geocities web site listed below contains excerpts from the book and illustrations of the use of fuzzy cognitive maps in forecasting. Please forward this email to interested parties or lists. To Read More or to Order American Confusion from Vietnam to Kosovo 1. You can read selections from American Confusion at this site: http://geocities.com/americanconfusion/index.htm (If clicking that link does not work, paste that address into your browsers top window. Then press Enter or Go.) 2. Or order American Confusion from Amazon.com by clicking THIS LINK <http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0595148093/qid%3D986040389/theameric anco-20> . If that does not work, you can connect to Amazon via the Internet address described in #1, above. Sincerely, William R. Taylor, M.D. -------------- next part -------------- HTML attachment scrubbed and removed
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