[ALST-L] book: American Confusion from Vietnam to Kosovo

[William R. Taylor]

To:  Alst-l
Subject: “American Confusion from Vietnam to Kosovo”
Simulation of military or political decision processes

Apologies for cross posting.

Kosovo War Predictions Test Forecasting Model
A new book, American Confusion from Vietnam to Kosovo: Coping with Chaos in
High Places, presents a model of the dynamics of confusion in governments
and corporations.
The model permits the user to organize data from any complex array of
factors, and predict “What-if” scenarios.
Fuzzy cognitive maps are calculated recursively using common spreadsheet
software.


NATO/Serbia Predictions Published on Internet

The model received its ultimate test in forecasting political and military
events during and after the US/NATO war against Serbia.
I published these predictions in real time in 1999 on a web site, where
visitors – and now, readers of American Confusion – decide for themselves
which predictions were borne out by subsequent events in the war and its
aftermath.


Method Useful to Military; Corporations; Many Countries

That original web site attracted visitors from universities, the military,
and non-governmental organizations, from over fifty countries. The model in
American Confusion could be adapted to such applications as war gaming,
economic forecasting, long range corporate or governmental planning,
political strategizing.
Users can combine the approach with priority-setting and other
organizational planning methods. The geocities web site listed below
contains excerpts from the book and illustrations of the use of fuzzy
cognitive maps in forecasting.

Please forward this email to interested parties or lists.

To Read More or to Order American Confusion from Vietnam to Kosovo

1. You can read selections from American Confusion at this site:
http://geocities.com/americanconfusion/index.htm
(If clicking that link does not work, paste that address into your browser’s
top window. Then press Enter or Go.)

2. Or order American Confusion from Amazon.com by clicking THIS LINK
<http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0595148093/qid%3D986040389/theameric
anco-20> . If that does not work, you can connect to Amazon via the Internet
address described in #1, above.
Sincerely,
William R. Taylor, M.D.

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