[ALBSA-Info] Fw: Security Watch: Wednesday, 10 October 2001

[Xhuliana Agolli]

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Security Watch" <isn-daily-news at sipo.gess.ethz.ch>
To: "Security Watch Mailing List" <isn-daily-news at sipo.gess.ethz.ch>
Sent: Wednesday, October 10, 2001 12:41 AM
Subject: Security Watch: Wednesday, 10 October 2001


> ISN Security Watch - Your daily security check on the 
> Partnership for Peace region. For our full news service 
> visit our website, http://www.isn.ethz.ch 
> _________________________________________________________ 
> 
> -Afghan rebels not ready to rule, says Russia  
> -Macedonia grants NLA amnesty  
> -Pakistan invites India to anti-terrorist talks  
> -Abkhazia accuses Georgia of air raid  
> -Arms sales reflect terrorism fears  
> -Russia settles Czech debt  
> -OPEC looking at supply cuts  
> -Greece may cancel war games  
> _________________________________________________________ 
>   
>   
> Afghan rebels not ready to rule, says Russia
>  
> Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said on Tuesday it 
> would be folly to try to impose its allies in the Northern 
> Alliance as Afghanistan's new rulers if the Taliban are 
> ousted by US-led military strikes. Speaking after talks 
> with his visiting British counterpart Geoff Hoon, Ivanov 
> said Moscow's bitter experience during the ill-fated 1979-
> 89 Soviet occupation of Afghanistan had taught it that 
> only a broadly based coalition would work. Moscow has been 
> supplying arms to the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance for 
> years but has agreed to step up deliveries as part of a 
> US-led global coalition against terrorism. Ivanov said 
> the Northern Alliance was the military arm of the 
> internationally recognized government of Afghanistan 
> ousted by the Taliban, but opposed the Alliance coming to 
> power alone. "Through our own painful experience, we know 
> that to bring someone to power from outside Afghanistan 
> is absolutely pointless and has no chance of success," 
> he said. "The question of creating Afghanistan's 
> political future should be resolved by the Afghans 
> themselves, naturally taking into account the ethnic 
> composition of the population living there," he said. 
> The Northern Alliance is based mainly on ethnic Tajiks 
> and Uzbeks and other minorities, while the majority 
> Pashtu, the country's traditional rulers, mostly back the 
> Taliban movement that controls around 95 per cent of the 
> country. Hoon said it was premature to talk of a Northern 
> Alliance government. "The military action in Afghanistan 
> has only just begun, and whilst it is important that we 
> think about the longer-term future for Afghanistan, it's 
> perhaps too soon to speculate what kind of government 
> might emerge." London wanted a broadly based government 
> that did not condone or support terrorism, he said. Hoon 
> declined to exclude Taliban from any new coalition but 
> said there would be "no place for any organization that 
> supports or condones terrorism." (Reuters)
>  
>        
>  
> Macedonia grants NLA amnesty
>  
> Macedonia's government decreed an amnesty for disarmed 
> ethnic Albanian guerrillas on Tuesday, honoring a key 
> part of a peace accord and helping pave the way for 
> the reintegration of rebel-inhabited territory. 
> However, a second step needed to sustain the peace 
> pact - legislation to improve the civil rights of 
> minority Albanians - remains on hold over Skopje's 
> demand for the release of 12 Macedonians said to have 
> been abducted by guerrillas. The amnesty came in the 
> form of a cabinet proclamation endorsing a statement 
> of intent by President Boris Trajkovski made at the 
> time of the August 13 peace deal to pardon rebels who 
> voluntarily demobilized. "This statement obligates all 
> state institutions to take measures to respect it 
> (amnesty)," said Labor and Social Affairs Minister 
> Bedredin Ibrahimi, a minority Albanian in the 
> coalition cabinet. "We as a government have accepted 
> Trajkovski's statement. The amnesty represents 
> political will and it deserves our support," said 
> deputy Prime Minister Xhevded Nusufi, another ethnic 
> Albanian. "The effect of the amnesty must be felt 
> from today. From today...(former) National Liberation 
> Army members can feel free in their movement and we can 
> start the process of returning people to their homes." 
> Western envoys guiding the implementation of the peace 
> accord had warned that neither Macedonian refugees nor 
> state organs could return to rebel-inhabited territory 
> without provoking violence unless an amnesty was in 
> place. Macedonian government leaders are anxious to 
> have security forces re-enter guerrilla zones as soon 
> as possible to demonstrate to constituents that state 
> sovereignty is being restored over territory overrun 
> by the insurgents. There was no immediate comment 
> from majority Macedonian ministers after the cabinet 
> session, a reflection of the amnesty's unpopularity 
> among most Macedonians. But Macedonian aides to 
> Trajkovski had said an amnesty would be declared on 
> Tuesday after weeks of delay caused by nationalist 
> hardliners in the awkward ruling coalition who 
> objected to the peace pact. The general pardon would 
> free former guerrillas from fear of arrest or 
> persecution. But the threat of vengeance from rogue 
> police reservists or paramilitaries remains. NLA 
> insurgents handed weapons to NATO and disbanded last 
> month. But parliament balked at passing amnesty 
> legislation for fear of a popular backlash before 
> elections in January, forcing the government to step 
> in. The Western-brokered peace settlement aims to 
> defuse the fifth ethnic conflict in the region of 
> old communist Yugoslavia since 1991 and improve 
> prospects for democracy, stability and prosperity 
> across the Balkans. (Reuters)
>  
>        
>  
> Pakistan invites India to anti-terrorist talks
>  
> Pakistan suggested on Tuesday a visit to the country 
> by Indian Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh "as soon as 
> possible" if Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee was 
> unable to come soon. Pakistani military ruler General 
> Pervez Musharraf had renewed an invitation to Vajpayee 
> for a visit to Islamabad when the two leaders talked on 
> telephone on Monday to discuss possible cooperation 
> against terrorism. "If there is difficulty that he 
> (Vajpayee) cannot come soon, then perhaps the foreign 
> minister can visit as soon as possible," Pakistan 
> Foreign Ministry's additional secretary, Aziz Kan, said. 
> Meanwhile in the capital Islamabad, the military 
> government on Tuesday ordered the army to set up bunkers 
> of sandbags at key installations in the capital, a day 
> after anti-US violence erupted in several cities. 
> Soldiers armed with automatic rifles stood on guard 
> inside the bunkers, which were reinforced on the interior 
> with bricks and concrete and put up at all entrances to 
> the diplomatic enclave that houses the US embassy. 
> Islamabad's television station and several other 
> government buildings were also fortified, including 
> the parliament building. Small army units were deployed 
> at all intersections in the city, each equipped with a 
> wireless set. Officials had no comment on the deployment 
> of such a large number of troops in the capital, which 
> was calm on Monday while pro-Taliban protesters rampaged 
> in the southwestern city of Quetta and in the 
> northwestern city of Peshawar. Such bunkers have never 
> been set up in Islamabad, a city purpose-built as the 
> capital in the 1960s and among the most peaceful in 
> volatile Pakistan. Residents said they had never seen 
> such tight security in the city, which saw the burning 
> of US embassy in 1979 and a siege by tens of thousands 
> of Shia Muslims in the 1980s that ended without 
> violence. UN officials say the government has assured 
> them that it will provide complete security to all UN 
> installations and offices in Pakistan after an angry 
> crowd on Monday partially burnt the building of the UN 
> Children's Fund (UNICEF) in Quetta, near the border 
> with Afghanistan. All UN international and local staff 
> had been ordered to stay home on Monday, the first 
> working day following overnight US-led strikes against 
> Afghanistan. Staff were also asked to stay at home on 
> Tuesday. Washington has promised to hunt down 
> suspected mastermind Osama bin Laden and his associates 
> and punish his protectors, the Afghanistan's ruling 
> Taliban movement. The Taliban have struck a defiant 
> pose, vowing to defend and fight back US attacks and 
> have consistently refused to surrender bin Laden, 
> considered by Washington the main suspect behind 
> deadly September 11 attacks in New York and Washington. 
> (Reuters)
>  
>        
>  
> Abkhazia accuses Georgia of air raid
>  
> Abkhazia accused Georgia of launching early morning air 
> raids on Tuesday in the area where a UN helicopter was 
> shot down by a missile from unidentified ground forces 
> a day earlier killing all on board. Georgia's border 
> guards said in a statement that unidentified helicopters 
> and planes had attacked villages in the Kodori gorge 
> between former Soviet Georgia and its breakaway Abkhazia 
> region but denied its forces were involved. The 
> helicopter, on a UN monitoring mission, was shot down 
> on Monday, killing all nine on board - five UN observers, 
> three Ukrainian crew and a local Abkhazian interpreter. 
> The guards' statement said the aircraft seen on Tuesday 
> had flown north, away from Georgia, towards Abkhazia's 
> border with Russia. Abkhazia Vice President Valery 
> Arshba said the aircraft had attacked Abkhazian military 
> units in the area, killing one soldier and wounding 
> three others. "It is absolutely not true (that Georgian 
> forces were involved)," a Georgian Defense Ministry 
> spokesman said. But Sergei Shamba, foreign minister of 
> the self-styled republic, blamed Georgia. "Those were 
> Georgian planes. What other planes could they have been? 
> Not American ones, that's for sure," he said. Kodori 
> Gorge, located between Abkhazia and Georgia, remains 
> outside the control of the Georgian government. 
> Abkhazian officials say Georgian guerrillas and Chechen 
> rebel groups are operating there. UN observers are 
> deployed on the separation line between Georgia and 
> Abkhazia, which declared independence from Tbilisi in 
> 1991. Abkhazian forces backed by mercenaries from 
> Russia's north Caucasus region drove out Georgian 
> government forces in 1993 after a war that cost 10'000 
> lives. Abkhazia, which borders Russia to its north, is 
> not recognized by any state. An aide to Russia's 
> President Vladimir Putin said Moscow was "increasingly 
> concerned" about the events. (Reuters)
>  
>        
>  
> Arms sales reflect terrorism fears
>  
> Officials from Russia's top arms exporter, attending a 
> defense industry show in Malaysia on Tuesday, said they 
> foresaw customers changing their shopping lists 
> following the 11 September attacks on the US. The 
> officials from state-owned arms exporter Rosoboronexport 
> attending an air show on Malaysia's Langkawi Island, 
> said they expected governments' future requirements 
> would reflect an increased emphasis on counter-terrorism 
> and internal security. "The change in criteria will 
> reflect their priorities in importing weapons," said 
> Victor Komardin, deputy chief of Rosoboronexport and 
> leader of the 500-strong Russian private sector 
> delegation to the regional trade show. Malaysian Prime 
> Minister Mahathir Mohamad, in an opening address to the 
> Langkawi International Maritime and Aerospace 
> Exhibition, also said future shows would probably focus 
> less on conventional military hardware. He said the 
> exhibitions would probably feature more surveillance 
> technology, and new developments like remote controls 
> for aircrafts and systems to detect poisonous chemicals. 
> Russian officials said they were trying to supply 
> advanced fighters to Malaysia and South Korea and were 
> also in talks with Indonesia. Russia is seeking new 
> markets as it tries to boost flagging military sales. 
> Exports stood at US$3 billion last year, well below its 
> target of US$6-7 billion. With limited domestic sales, 
> the Russian defense industry will have trouble 
> supporting its two primary fighter aircraft 
> manufacturers, MiG and Sukhoi, over the coming years, 
> according to western analysts. A Sukhoi spokesman said 
> in Langkawi the company was bidding to sell Su-30MK 
> fighters to Malaysia and Su-35 to South Korea. "We are 
> also talking to Indonesia," said Sukhoi spokesman 
> Iouri Chervakov. (Reuters)
>  
>        
>  
> Russia settles Czech debt
>  
> The Czech Republic and Russia have agreed on settlement 
> of Russia's debt from the Soviet Union era on Monday, in 
> a deal which could set a precedent for Russia's debt 
> talks with other former Communist countries. Russian 
> Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov said after meeting Czech 
> Prime Minister Milos Zeman that the Czech Republic would 
> forgive Russia part of the US$3.6 billion debt and 
> spread out the payments of the rest. "The part of the 
> debt which we were due to pay a long time ago will be 
> lowered, and the rest will be restructured until the year 
> 2020," he said. Czech Deputy Finance Minister Ladislav 
> Zelinka said the Czechs agreed to sell a US$2.5 billion 
> portion of the debt to a private company, Falkon 
> Capital, for slightly over 20 billion crowns (US$547 
> million). The remaining part of the debt will be paid 
> between now and 2020 in cash, goods and into a guarantee 
> fund for Czech exports to Russia. The Czech Republic, a 
> successor to former Soviet Union's satellite 
> Czechoslovakia, is not a member of the Paris Club of 
> Russia's sovereign creditors. Zelinka said Falkon 
> Capital, a little-known company, would pay its dues to 
> the Czech government by the end of this year. In 
> Moscow, a Finance Ministry source said the Czech debt 
> constitutes a large part of the US$14 billion debt to 
> COMECON states, but declined to give an exact breakdown 
> as much of the debt had not been verified or reconciled. 
> Russia's total foreign debt burden is around US$140 
> billion. (Reuters)
>  
>        
>  
> OPEC looking at supply cuts
>  
> Momentum is building within OPEC for a supply cut of 
> 700'000 to one million barrels per day to boost sagging 
> oil prices, but the timing for any reduction has not 
> been decided, a Gulf source said on Tuesday. "There is 
> a movement (in OPEC) for a cut," the Gulf source said, 
> adding that oil ministers were in the midst of 
> consultations. "Consensus is starting to build for a 
> reduction of between 700'000 barrels per day (bpd) to 
> one million bpd." The Organization of the Petroleum 
> Exporting Countries wants to keep oil around its target 
> price of US$25 a barrel for a reference basket of its 
> seven crude oils. But fears of recession have knocked 
> 25 per cent off oil prices since the 11 September 
> attacks on the United States, pushing OPEC's basket 
> price down to below US$20 a barrel. The Gulf source said 
> the timing of a potential output curb, which would be 
> the cartel's fourth this year, was unclear. "There are 
> some who want to cut now and others who want to wait 
> until the US retaliation against Afghanistan is over," 
> he said. The oil cartel chose not to activate its 
> automatic price band mechanism, which stipulates that 
> OPEC cut output if its reference price says below US$22 
> for 10 consecutive trading days - a point reached on 
> Friday. The Gulf source said agreement had not been 
> reached on whether to involve key Non-OPEC producers in 
> any OPEC output action. Some members fear losing market 
> share to rival non-OPEC producers whose output, hoisted 
> by two years of lofty prices, has been rising. But a 
> hastily-arranged meeting between major OPEC and non-OPEC 
> oil producers set for Sunday in Madrid was postponed due 
> to scheduling snags. OPEC delegates said it was not 
> clear when the meeting - which was to include Saudi 
> Arabia, Iran, Venezuela, Algeria and non-OPEC's Mexico 
> and Russia - would be rescheduled. However strategic 
> analysts Stratfor doubt OPEC's ability to implement a 
> production cut, arguing that global recession, robust 
> oil supplies and the refusal of non-OPEC states to cut 
> production will sabotage any attempt to shore up prices 
> in the next six months. Stratfor suggest that this will 
> lead to cheap energy, higher energy security and a 
> quick degradation in the economies of OPEC members, most 
> of which depend on oil for up 90 percent of export 
> earnings. (Reuters, Stratfor)
>  
>        
>  
> Greece may cancel war games
>  
> Greece said on Tuesday it was considering delaying its 
> annual joint military exercises with Cyprus as a result 
> of the US raids on Afghanistan. "It's an issue that we 
> will face jointly with the Cyprus government," 
> government spokesman Dimitris Reppas said. The air and 
> sea war games which are codenamed Nikiforos in Greece 
> and Toxotis in Cyprus were scheduled to be held 
> between 15 and 20 October. Turkey matches the exercise 
> with its own in the region at the same time, usually 
> causing tension with traditional foe Greece. The two 
> NATO allies have long been at odds over territorial 
> and minority rights in Cyprus, which Turkey invaded in 
> 1974. A self-declared Turkish Cypriot state in the north 
> of the divided island is recognized only by Ankara. 
> (Reuters)
>   
> _________________________________________________________   
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