[ALBSA-Info] London Times

[Agron Alibali]

The Times (London) 
November 19, 2001, Monday 
Features 



 Balkan turnaround 



The decisive victory of Ibrahim Rugova in the general election in Kosovo on Saturday is a rare ray of hope in an area that has long suffered the darkness of violence and instability. Mr Rugova's moderate Democratic League for Kosovo captured 45 per cent of the popular vote, far ahead of the 24 per cent won by the more nationalist Democratic Party of Kosovo. This is easily enough to ensure that the veteran pacifist leader of the Kosovan Albanians becomes President, though still short of the outright majority that would enable his party to form a government without coalition partners. Nevertheless, the election - the first free vote ever held in this Yugoslav province - marks a turning point in the uphill task to promote moderation, political stability and ethnic reconciliation. The importance of the vote lies as much in the way it was conducted as in its outcome. It was remarkably free of intimidation or violence. Former leaders of the Kosovo Liberation Army, who showed little readiness to renounce the politics of armed struggle, fought the election fairly, under democratic rules. The Serb minority, which until recently was preparing to boycott the vote, took a last-minute decision to participate, encouraged by the sensible advice from Belgrade that they should seize this chance to make their voice heard. After the flight of almost 200,000 Serbs and other minorities, those remaining account for only 5 per of the population. But in defiance of some hardline leaders, around 46 per cent voted, giving credibility to the system of proportional representation that reserves 10 per cent of the seats for them and a further 10 for other minorities. 

Mr Rugova's victory does not lessen the Albanian pressure for full independence. He insisted it was a mandate for a break from Yugoslavia, which the United Nations has refused to countenance so far. But as President he can appoint a prime minister who would be ready to work within the existing framework of a Western protectorate that has wide-ranging autonomy. The new assembly can make laws and debate issues while leaving resolution of Kosovo's final status till later. 

International attention has moved away from the Balkans, and the West's preoccupation with the war on terrorism may have made quiet compromise easier. But the war has also sent useful signals to Kosovo. The first is that the West has not lost its will to defend its interests and use force to defeat extremism. The calculations by Albanian extremists, in Kosovo as well as Macedonia, that the West would be unwilling to take up arms again to oppose them have been dented. The second signal is that the new closeness between Russia and the West extends now also to the Balkans, and undercuts hopes by Serb nationalists of exploiting differences. 

This message has been well understood by President Kostunica, who next week begins a visit to Western Europe. He has gradually reconciled Yugoslavia to the realities of defeat in Kosovo and the crimes committed there by Serbs. Last week he insisted that Belgrade would have to co-operate with the criminal tribunal in The Hague, and called for new laws to regularise the extradition of suspects. 

Facing down a mutiny by former Milosevic henchmen in the police, he is skilfully preparing his country for what is as inevitable as it is necessary: face-to-face talks with Mr Rugova on Kosovo's future. The atmosphere has already been helped further south by the welcome passage in Macedonia's parliament of a constitutional package to reassure the Albanian minority. Tensions remain, but the turnaround in the Balkans looks as sudden and as welcome as it has been in Afghanistan. 



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