[ALBSA-Info] ANALYSIS-Diehard Albanian rebels face endgame, says envoy

[Gazhebo at aol.com]

ANALYSIS-Diehard Albanian rebels face endgame, says envoy

By Douglas Hamilton

SKOPJE, May 15 (Reuters) - In what might be the endgame in the battle against 
ethnic Albanian insurgents in the Balkans, Serbia seems likely to defeat 
guerrillas on its territory more quickly than its Slav neighbour Macedonia. 

Both are backed by specialised NATO task forces on the Kosovo boundary and 
Yugoslav border, determined to choke off the flow of weapons that is the 
life-blood for the extremists. 

Both share the same strategy: isolate the insurgents politically, offer them 
a way out, and remove them if they do not take it. But there must be no 
serious civilian casualties. 

Circumstances, however, are different, and it shows in  military tactics, on 
similar terrain and against similarly armed groups of insurgents separated by 
only a few km (miles) on either side of the Yugoslav-Macedonia border. 

Serbian elite troops went house-to-house on Monday to clear the village of 
Oraovica in an operation clearly designed to prove to NATO that there will be 
no repeat of Kosovo-style shelling and village burning. 

In Macedonia, the army and special police have shelled and rocketed guerrilla 
positions for 10 days in rebel-held villages with tanks, artillery, mortars 
and helicopter gunships, in a stand-off operation that carries inherent 
risks. 

Up to 3,000 ethnic Albanian civilians cowering in their basements are 
potential "casualties waiting to be counted" if Macedonian forces were to 
roll in with armour, said a senior envoy from a NATO power in Skopje. 

Macedonia on Tuesday set a "last deadline" for rebels and civilians to leave 
by Thursday noon or face an army assault, and extending a ceasefire in effect 
since Sunday. 

HEARTS AND MINDS 

The conflict, analysts say, is less a war than a struggle for the moral high 
ground, determined by which side is seen to act justly and with proportionate 
use of force in pursuit of legitimate aims. 

To those in Macedonia and south Serbia who think insurgency can force a 
re-run of the 1999 NATO intervention in Kosovo, the Western allies are 
flashing the constant signal: "It's over." 

"We're not going to negotiate with whoever has a gun," a Western source said. 
"They are not getting a seat at the table." 

So far, the Albanian rebels are not listening. They cling to a belief that 
enough moderate Albanians will back them to make the West change its tune and 
negotiate with them. 

Serbia and the Macedonian government are cooperating closely with Western 
powers to eradicate ethnic discrimination, depriving the rebels of political 
oxygen for the campaigns. 

But concrete results must get ahead of the guerrilla capacity to polarise 
ethnically mixed regions by the kind of shock killings that, in Macedonia 
last month, sparked two days of anti-Albanian riots. 

When Macedonia formed a Slav-Albanian government of national unity on Monday, 
the European Union said it expected action to address Albanian grievances "by 
the end of this month." 

Western sources believe the two guerrilla movements are linked to the same 
extremist "hard men" in Kosovo who control the weapons flow from financial 
backers in the Albanian diaspora, but not closely coordinated on an 
operational level. 

"The core of this is the small minority who refuse to live as a minority in 
someone else's state...it's the endgame," said a Western envoy in Macedonia. 

"They have to understand they lost out in Kosovo. Now they're trying to 
muscle in on a legitimate process where Albanians can get power through the 
ballot box." 

PUZZLE OVER GUERRILLA MOTIVES 

Despite Western calls for restraint, a Macedonian Army assault was launched 
in March to drive guerrillas from villages in the mountains above the city of 
Tetovo. It destroyed homes but miraculously avoided many deaths. 

The strategy, however, risks creating a wasteland of deserted villages in 
ethnic Albanian lands along the Kosovo border leaving guerrillas in the 
hills. 

In Serbia, the guerrillas have been invited to talks but rejected what one 
Western source called "any reasonable ideas of multi-ethnic harmony." The 
Serbs "know they've won provided they don't do anything stupid at this last 
stage," he said. 

NATO on Monday decided that Serbia would regain control of a 
guerrilla-occupied buffer zone in southern Serbia's Presevo Valley on May 24. 
The UCPMB guerrilla movement dug in there for the past year has warned it 
will fight. 

Western allies have told Belgrade there must be no more "scorched earth" 
tactics. Fighting must be handled by troops with more modern ideas and 
training. 

The Yugoslav security forces are bigger, better equipped and more experienced 
than Macedonia's tiny army. 

In Macedonia, the West is likely to counsel a waiting game. 

The National Liberation Army has had time to dig in, forming trench barriers 
to give pause to an armoured assault, and it has more potential territory to 
move in than Presevo offers. 

At the same time, NATO troops in Kosovo have reinforced efforts to choke off 
their supply of weapons and ammunition.