[ALBSA-Info] On the edge: Unrest on FYROM's doorstep/Kathimerini

[Gazhebo at aol.com]

On the edge: Unrest on FYROM's doorstep
Spreading clashes between ethnic Albanians and Slav-Macedonians on Skopje's 
border with the province of Kosovo threaten to start another war

By G.G. De Lastic
Kathimerini

Real battles lasting entire days have taken place sporadically during the 
past week in hitherto little known Tanusevci village in the Former Yugoslav 
Republic of Macedonia. The village is occupied by Albanians and is close to 
the Kosovo border. Rebels pushing for Albanian autonomy and the 
Slav-Macedonian army have clashed in this remote area. Unconfirmed sources 
report that the village often changes hands. Hundreds of Albanian civilians 
have taken refuge in Kosovo, and FYROM President Boris Trajkovski publicly 
denounced their flight as stage-managed.

The political import of what is going on in this otherwise insignificant 
village is tremendous. The Albanian residents refuse to accept the terms of 
the agreement defining the Yugoslav-FYROM border, which the two countries 
signed last Friday in Skopje on the sidelines of the Balkan Summit, and they 
are demanding that their village be part of Kosovo. This indicates a desire 
for Albanian national completion, regardless of existing international 
borders.

Taking up arms in a de facto imposition of this desire and clashes with the 
armed forces of the country are not "acts of terrorism" as the joint 
communique of the Balkan summit foolishly described them, but something much 
more serious. Whether we like it or not, they are the beginning of an armed 
national liberation struggle by a certain section of the Albanians in FYROM.

As expected, the de facto consolidation of Kosovo's independence during the 
NATO attack on Serbia, and the ongoing process of breaking away from Serbia 
by Presevo, Medvedja and Bujanovac, also tolerated by the NATO forces, has 
persuaded some Albanians in FYROM that it was their turn to become 
independent.

Nightmarish prospect

This is an alarming prospect. The coexistence of Albanians and 
Slav-Macedonians is artificial, and the armed clashes at Tanusevci reduce the 
desire to continue this "state marriage." If the Albanians' desire for 
independence is openly expressed, then FYROM will not be able to exist as a 
unified state because of its large proportion of Albanian citizens (30-40 
percent: The exact number is not known because both sides deliberately 
falsify the figures).

The worst scenario of all is not the potential breakup of FYROM as a state, 
but that our neighboring countries will almost certainly dismember it and and 
divide it up among themselves.

The Albanian areas will sooner or later attempt to become part of Albania, 
while matters are more complicated in the Slav-Macedonian areas. The 
prevailing view in Bulgaria is that the Slav-Macedonians are a Bulgarian 
race, so if FYROM breaks up Sofia will be very tempted by the desire to annex 
Slav-Macedonian territory, which would meet the approval of some 
Slav-Macedonians in FYROM.

There is an additional complication in the fact that similar views, though 
less widespread and in a milder form, are held in Serbia, where the 
Slav-Macedonians are seen as Southern Serbs. Within FYROM, Slav-Macedonians 
who oppose annexation by Bulgaria may prefer to stick with Serbia, thus 
bringing Belgrade into the game.

Whatever happens, it would be self-deluding to think that Greece would be 
unaffected and would stand by and do nothing if FYROM were partitioned by two 
or three of its neighbors. It would be even more naive to expect this to 
happen peacefully and without bloodshed.

The threat of such developments explains the full political support which 
Prime Minister Costas Simitis gave FYROM during his recent visit to Skopje, 
even though nothing happened, or is expected to happen, concerning FYROM's 
name.

Everything unresolved

>From the strategic point of view, the armed clashes in southern Serbia are 
clearly more serious than those in FYROM. "All the international observers 
who visited the area agree that it is only a matter of time before there is a 
major outbreak of violence... If there is an upheaval, it will certainly 
cause serious problems for the new rulers in Belgrade; it will unleash 
another, perhaps final, wave of ethnic cleansing in Kosovo; it will spread to 
sensitive areas in northern Macedonia; and it will become a major challenge 
for the international community," said special representative of the UN 
secretary-general for the Balkans, Carl Bildt, a former Swedish premier, in a 
dramatic letter to Kofi Annan.

In fact, while the situation in FYROM is growing more critical, matters in 
southern Serbia are not so alarming. The new government in Belgrade has shown 
that it is so closely tied to US and NATO policy that it is unlikely to react 
violently to any secession from Serb or Yugoslav territory. 

Serb public opinion runs along the same lines, displaying indifference to 
Presevo or to Montenegro, which will probably announce the expected 
referendum on independence from Yugoslavia by summer.

In a state of collapse

Serbia has already entered a stage of political collapse, similar to that of 
Yeltsin's Russia after the disintegration of the USSR. Belgrade will not be 
able to play a leading role in the Balkans for years, but will influence them 
indirectly through its own weakness, which will fuel ambitions in another 
Balkan states. 

What is temporarily keeping the situation in the Balkans in check is the 
desire of all the countries in the area to join NATO and the European Union. 

In essence, however, not one Balkan problem has been resolved. NATO 
protectorates (Bosnia, Kosovo) are multiplying, and new states are emerging, 
even when they are obviously not viable. The unavoidable conflicts that are 
looming (such as the dismemberment of Bosnia and FYROM, and union of Albania 
and Kosovo) are temporarily delayed, only to return in more violent form when 
circumstances permit. 

As for Balkan leaders, they prefer to bury their heads in the sand rather 
than solve problems, as for example with the virtual reality communique at t
he Skopje summit, which reflects nothing whatsoever of the critical situation 
and vital issues in the Balkans.