[ALBSA-Info] Ludicrous forecasts

[Kreshnik Bejko]

<Jane's is a premier military and strategic information resource in the US. 
This forecast falls largely in line with the prediction of another strategic 
forecasting service Stratfor.com>

Jane's Information Group Limited, July 26, 2001

The prospects for a ´Greater Albania´

ALBANIAN nationalism has overtaken that of the Serbs to become the principal 
destabilising factor in the Balkans. Ethnic Albanians belonging to the 
self-styled National Liberation Army (NLA) are occupying ethnic Albanian 
villages in northern Macedonia and threatening two Macedonian towns, Tetovo 
and Kumanovo. Their purpose: to extract concessions from the moderate, 
non-violent coalition of Slavs and ethnic Albanians in the Macedonian 
parliament.

What do the ethnic Albanians want? More power in Macedonia, where they 
comprise more than a third of the population? An independent Kosovo ruled by 
Albanians? Or a ´Greater Albania´ made up of Albania proper, Kosovo, the 
Presevo valley in southern Serbia, which has an ethnic Albanian majority, 
and western Macedonia? FOREIGN REPORT makes a prediction.

Worried Western Albania-watchers can easily imagine a plot by clan leaders 
in northern Albania led by Sali Berisha, the controversial former head of 
government and physician to the former dictator, Enver Hoxha. The plot they 
fear is a bid to take power in a new and enlarged Muslim state for ethnic 
Albanians,

Shared blood, language and customs between northern Albanians and Kosovars 
are, up to a point, the main reason for such speculation. It is not so 
simple, however.

The overall Albanian population is divided between Ghegs and Tosks. Northern 
Albanians and Kosovars are Ghegs, with clan-based social systems including 
the blood feud, unique notions of a man´s honour and a quite different way 
of life to that of the Tosks of south and central Albania who currently head 
the government in Tirana. Nevertheless, cultural differences do not appear 
to have inhibited the fighters, at least not yet.

Will they or won´t they?

Sali Berisha and other northern Albanian leaders have openly embraced the 
pan-Albanian idea. We have heard reports of deliveries of arms from northern 
Albania to the rebels in Macedonia. Nato military sources say an arms 
stockpile of several hundred tons is held in north Albanian strongholds 
ready for use. In April, an authoritative Nato source reported sightings of 
heavy mortar rounds being trucked from northern Albania for use in 
Macedonia.

Western suspicion about plans for a Greater Albania has been intensified by 
the high degree of co-operation between Albanians and their brothers in 
Macedonia and Kosovo. During the Kosovo war against the Serbs, Macedonian 
Albanians joined the Kosovar fighters. Currently, more than half of the 800 
or so ´Macedonian´ rebels come from Kosovo.

There is, however, no tangible sign of the political framework among 
Albanians, which would indicate a budding Greater Albania. Power among 
Albanians is diffuse, with decisions taken within clans in northern Albania 
or within powerful family groups inside Kosovo where members of different 
clans have intermingled, eroding clan loyalties.

Moreover, Albanian military commanders usually lead men from specific areas 
and consider themselves equal to other area commanders. No single leader is 
allowed to stand above the others. Nor are these military men subordinate to 
Albanian politicians. Kosovar Albanians, fed up with their fighters´ 
violence and criminality, gave them only 27% of the vote in the October 2000 
municipal elections.

In Macedonia, the main ethnic Albanian political figure, Arben Khaferi, 
firmly resists calls for pan-Albanian unification. Albanians from the 
Albanian-populated towns of Gostivar and Kicevo do not seem to have joined 
the NLA in any numbers. And the Albanian government in Tirana does not seem 
to want to add Kosovo and western Macedonia to its list of nightmares. Add 
to that the universal opposition in the Balkans to a Greater Albania and you 
have an easy short-term prediction: give or take some shelling here and 
there, ethnic Albanian territory will be stable.

Our long-range prediction? Look no further than one simple statistic: The 
Albanian birth rate is five times greater than that of the Slavs. Is it any 
surprise that Albanians are spilling over into Slav lands?


_________________________________________________________________
Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp