[ALBSA-Info] {QIKSH «ALBEUROPA»} NEWS: AFFAIRS OF STATE -- Why the Balkans Still Need NATO (Business Week, February 15, 2001)

[Wolfgang Plarre]

http://biz.yahoo.com/bizwk/010215/f.html

Thursday February 15, 1:47 pm Eastern Time

BusinessWeek Online
AFFAIRS OF STATE -- Why the Balkans Still Need NATO

AFFAIRS OF STATE

By Stan Crock in Washington, D.C.

Ever since centuries-old bloodshed in the Balkans provided the spark
that ignited World War I, foreign-policy analysts have been pessimistic
about the prospects for peace in the area. When the U.S. agreed in 1995
to send troops there, many predicted the worst: hundreds of soldiers
would come home in body bags. Similarly, when the U.S. sent peacekeepers
to Kosovo in 1999, it was conventional wisdom that the Kosovo Liberation
Army would avenge Serbian ethnic cleansing -- with peacekeepers
potentially caught in the crossfire. 
    So what happened? Very little -- not a single U.S. combat casualty
so far. The body bags have been kept in storage. In fact, the casualty
rate is lower than for troops training in the U.S., according to Ivo
Daalder, a Balkans expert at the Brookings Institution and a former
National Security Council aide. And that provides a lesson for America
about the risks and rewards of being Global Supercop. 
    While Slobodan Milosevic unleashed ``ethnic cleansing'' in Kosovo in
the late '90s, Bosnia was peaceful. The reasons can be summed up with
four Ws: weariness, weather, weapons, and wealth -- or at least the
whiff of prosperity. By the time the warring factions in Bosnia,
Croatia, and Serbia signed the Dayton accords, they were exhausted by
the fighting and the atrocities. It didn't hurt that the Serbs, the
aggressors in Kosovo, were put on the defensive by NATO bombing missions
and eventually sued for an end to hostilities. 

AMERICA'S THREE Fs. The harsh Balkan winters also helped. The weather
had the benefit of preventing the Serbian antagonists from continuing to
wage war and enabled NATO forces to set up operations without
interference. Their weapons meant they could outgun anyone who
challenged them. 
    The Americans brought along not just firepower, but also a taste for
French fries and fried chicken. The hope for a better life and Western
prosperity, which only peace could bring, was a key factor in persuading
the adversaries to keep their powder dry. 
    Recently, the news has been even better. Yugoslavian voters ousted
Milosevic, the cause of such grief and tragedy in the region. And
Croatians got fed up with their nationalist leader, Franjo Tudjman, and
sent his party packing. While Milosevic's replacement, Vojislav
Kostunica, may not be particularly pro-American, he's a vast
improvement. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, recent elections gave a
non-nationalist coalition control of the lower house of Parliament. And
the Cabinet in the Bosnian Serb Republika Srpska isn't expected to have
a member of alleged war criminal Radovan Karadzic's SDS party. 

RECIPE FOR DISASTER? Meanwhile in Kosovo, while some violence continues,
the skirmishes are few and far between, according to Senator Joseph
Biden (D-Del.), the ranking minority member of the Senate Foreign
Relations Committee who recently returned from a trip to the Balkans. He
notes that the three leading Kosovar Albanian politicians -- Ibrahim
Rugova, Hashim Thaci, and Ramush Haradinaj -- all have called for an end
to attacks on Serbs living in Kosovo. 
    To be sure, much remains to be done. An economic-stabilization
package for the region is needed. Endemic corruption must end.
Government officials in Belgrade need to iron out their relationships
with Montenegro and Kosovo. The alternative is almost unthinkable: A
breakup of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia could be disastrous,
igniting more warfare. 
    What must be remembered, however, is that the presence of American
and NATO forces has been critical for the progress to date -- and can
lay the foundation for future advances. As President Bush mulls what to
do about the continued presence of GIs in the region, he needs to review
what has happened so far, especially given the all the experts'
pessimism. Truth is, the reenlistment rate for Balkan-based troops is
the highest in the Army. ``It would be a disaster if the U.S. were to
pull its troops out of Kosovo or Bosnia,'' says Biden. Yes, it costs
NATO millions to keep troops in the Balkans. But peace is a lot cheaper
than war. 

Copyright 2001 Business Week.


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