[ALBSA-Info] Fwd: Analysis / Is it too late for Arafat to save himself?

[Mimoza Meholli]

>From: "Jim Satterwhite" <satterwhitej at bluffton.edu>

>Wednesday, December 05, 2001
>     Ha'aretz
>
>
>Analysis / Is it too late for Arafat to save himself?
>
>By Bradley Burston, Ha'aretz Correspondent
>
>
>
>
>Yasser Arafat Monday faced the most severe challenge to date to his rule in
>the history of the Palestinian Authority, amid signs that unprecedented 
>U.S.
>and Israeli pressure to crack down hard and fast on Islamic militants was
>finally registering on the Palestinian leader - perhaps too late.
>
>A weekend tidal wave of suicide terror that killed more than two dozen
>people and wounded hundreds in blast after blast in Israeli cities spurred 
>a
>profound reassessment in Washington of the extent to which Arafat was 
>making
>good on pledges - rooted in the 1993 Oslo peace accords that created the
>PA - to curb terror attacks that, administration officials fear, could fan
>the brushfire Israeli-Palestinian conflict into a full-scale war.
>
>But with the militant, superbly organized Islamic Resistance Movement Hamas
>a potent force among grass-roots Palestinians, Arafat has been reluctant to
>respond in the past to calls to round up and jail suspected terrorists and
>their commanders. Arafat is especially loath to move against Hamas, whose
>well-armed, well-trained gunmen have in the past trained their weapons on 
>PA
>police seeking to detain them.
>
>Now, however, Arafat may have no choice. If he is to keep at bay mounting
>voices within Israel calling for his political head, the wily Palestine
>Liberation Organization chief must now take action against Hamas and its
>junior partner in fundamentalist militancy, the Islamic Jihad. In short
>order, he will also face calls to seize members of the radical Popular 
>Front
>for the Liberation of Palestine, which rocked Israel with the October
>assassination of cabinet minister Rehavam Ze'evi. Past efforts to move
>against militants have been met with gunfire from the highly trained,
>well-equipped groups.
>
>Perhaps most dicey, from the standpoint of a destabilizing domestic
>backlash, will be demands to act against the Tanzim, the house militia of
>Arafat's own Fatah PLO wing and the assault rifle-brandishing spearhead of
>the 14 month-long Palestinian uprising.
>
>Arafat, long a master of tightrope balancing between potentially hostile
>platforms, has come under mounting pressure even from his own military men
>to opt for decisive action against militants, whose activities, PA 
>officials
>now believe, threaten the continued existence of the authority itself.
>
>"You can hear in the remarks of Arafat's commanders the words of men who
>understand that there is a substantive threat to their rule, that 
>everything
>could just be lost," says Ha'aretzcommentator Danny Rubinstein. "The threat
>to Arafat's rule is not only external, it is also internal. If Arafat's 
>rule
>does not prove that it holds the 'full monopoly over the client base,'
>others may come to the fore. There are militias operating, and there are
>coalitions of various organizations and what are essentially private 
>armies.
>In this reality, (West Bank PA secret service chief) Jibril Rajoub, 
>together
>with other forces, is an army. And if this is true, there may be no ruling
>entity."
>
>Arafat can little afford to ignore the Israeli demands for a crack-down, 
>not
>least because the stern words emanating from Jerusalem have taken on an
>ominous sounding-board in statements Sunday by Bush administration
>officials, headed by the customarily judicious secretary of state, Colin
>Powell.
>
>Rubinstein said that after Arafat sat with Powell's special envoy, retired
>Marine General Anthony Zinni last week, and pledged strong efforts to 
>foster
>a cease-fire, the terrorist attacks by Hamas and the Islamic Jihad
>constituted "a spitting in Arafat's face, nearly a declaration of rebellion
>against him. This is quite clear now to the entire Palestinian leadership -
>either you're in charge, or you're not."
>
>Powell's own impatience was much in evidence this week. "It is a moment of
>truth, Mr. Arafat," Powell said, telling CBS's "Face the Nation" program of
>a telephone conversation with the PA leader. "The deadline ought to be now.
>Stop now," he said. "Use all of your legitimate power but more than that,
>use the power of your position as leader of the Palestinian people to bring
>this kind of... violence to an end."
>
>Going on the apparent offensive, Arafat's Gaza security chief announced a
>state of emergency, curbing movement of Palestinians and restricting the
>rights of Palestinians to carry firearms to PA security personnel only. 
>Also
>banned were the holding of demonstrations without a license, and use of
>mosques as a base "for political propaganda against the national goals."
>
>In night sweeps, masked PA police were photographed seizing some of a total
>of 100 suspected Islamic militants taken into custody. Palestinian security
>forces also placed Hamas spiritual leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin under house
>arrest. Palestinian cabinet ministers said the speed of the round-up was
>unprecedented. Explaining the campaign to the Palestinian public,
>Palestinian Planning Minister and senior peace negotiator Nabil Shaath told
>Voice of Palestine Radio:
>
>"These attacks on Israeli civilians have pushed us into a corner. We live 
>in
>a world that is busy with the war against Afghanistan and international
>terror, and we have to keep trying to be part of the international 
>community
>and not be isolated.".
>
>But Israeli officials said later they found the PA arrests suspect - both 
>in
>their telegeneity and in the absence of resistance by suspects and militant
>sympathizers. Moreover, they noted, Hamas members were later observed armed
>and firing into the air at the funeral of a gunman who killed an Israeli
>motorist in Gaza early Sunday. "Resistance and holy war will not stop,"
>hundreds of Hamas supporters chanted during the burial ceremony.
>
>As opposed to past crises, this time Arafat will be unable to institute a
>cosmetic crack-down to salve U.S. ire, Rubinstein concludes. "Arafat will
>need more than mere cosmetics. Zinni is on site now, he will be the one who
>sees, he will talks to both sides, he will be the one who decides, and he
>will be the one who reports back."
>
>
>


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