[ALBSA-Info] Veton Surroj

[aalibali at law.harvard.edu]

International Herald Tribune

27 March 2001

Renewed Ethnic Reform Would Defuse Macedonian Conflict 
http://www.iht.com/articles/14716.html

Veton Surroi 
(Los Angeles Times Syndicate Tuesday, March 27, 2001)

PRISTINA, Kosovo War is a catalyst for change. A problem is not ripe for 
international attention until there is violence, and the latest violence in 
Macedonia, in this sense, is no different from the pattern of disintegration of 
the former Yugoslavia over the last 10 years.
.
The Albanian guerrillas who started this latest round of violence in Macedonia 
are drawing attention to their political requests with the hope that by raising 
the stakes to threaten the stability of a fragile, multiethnic state, the 
international focus will finally turn in their direction.
.
The guerrillas in Macedonia are using a tactic that was successful in the 
Presevo valley, along the frontier with nearby Serbia. The Presevo Albanians, 
left to the mercy of the unreformed Serbian police and military, decided to 
take up arms using Kosovo as a logistics base. The Presevo complaints suddenly 
became the object of internationally mediated negotiations.
.
Kosovo is also the logistics base for the guerrillas in Macedonia. But this 
situation is far from one in which Kosovo is exporting an insurgency into 
Macedonia, an accusation made by the Macedonian government. The requests that 
the guerrillas make now, for constitutional reform in Macedonia, have been made 
by the ethnic Albanian political parties over the last decade.
.
Nor is it, on the other side, true, as the guerrillas maintain, that an 
insurgency is needed to end Macedonian oppression of Albanians. A steady 
evolution toward ethnic rights has been developing in the new, democratic 
Macedonia, and although there is inequality, the Albanians in Macedonia, even 
forming part of the coalition governments over the past decade, were better off 
than the Albanians oppressed by President Slobodan Milosevic of Yugoslavia.
.
Nevertheless, an insurgency is in the making, and none of the outcomes through 
arms is favorable to Macedonia or peace in the region. An attempt by the weak 
government forces to crush this insurgency will only cause it to expand.
.
The forces of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, on the other side of the 
border in Kosovo, do not have a mission in Macedonia, and it is highly unlikely 
that NATO countries, most notably the United States, want an intervention in 
Macedonia. And the insurgents can do only what they are doing right now, 
drawing attention: They are not strong enough for a frontal clash.
.
But time will not help if the present trends persist. Ethnic Macedonians and 
Albanians will increasingly see this present conflict as a clash where they 
have to protect their ethnicity. And the conflict will be feeding itself, up to 
the point where there is only one solution left, that of territorially dividing 
Macedonians and Albanians.
.
Macedonia has escaped from war until now, thanks to an inter-ethnic agreement, 
a policy of a democratic evolution and strategic international support. It is 
these three factors, not its weak army and police, that have preserved 
Macedonia's territorial integrity. And it cannot maintain that integrity unless 
it uses these same factors in new conditions.
.
First, it is important to embark on a path toward a new interethnic agreement. 
Electoral democracy has shown an important evolution in Macedonia, but it has 
not erased the effects of the majority ethnic vote overruling any ethnic 
minority initiative.
.
A new consensual agreement is needed, arising from a constitutional round table 
where the Albanians are not outvoted by an ethnic majority. This agreement 
should satisfy the needs of the Macedonian Slavs to feel Macedonia is their 
nation-state and the needs of the Albanians to have equal rights under the 
constitution. And the agreement should be endorsed by the whole spectrum of the 
relevant political parties in Macedonia, including new ones that may represent 
the insurgent Albanians.
.
Time is running out in Macedonia. If negotiation ensues now, it will be over 
reform. If negotiation is later, it will be over maps to divide people.
.
After 10 bloody years in former Yugoslavia, the lesson for Macedonia and the 
world could not be clearer: An imminent blood bath in Macedonia can only be 
stopped by acting sooner rather than later.
.
The writer, a prominent Kosovo Albanian moderate, is the publisher of Koha 
Ditore, the main newspaper of Kosovo. This comment was distributed by the Los 
Angeles Times Syndicate.