[ALBSA-Info] Yugoslav Crisis- from JRL

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The following article was published at Johnson's Russia List.



Date: Thu, 28 Sep 2000 
From: "Dmitri Glinski Vassiliev" <dmitri_glinski at mtu-net.ru> 
Subject: Yugoslav Crisis

Dear David:

It appears that enough time has passed to draw some conclusions on the 
Russian government response to the latest Yugoslav crisis. Russia may be the 
only external force which has had the credentials required to help Yugoslavia 
avoid its descent into another civil war. Russia was given this opportunity 
by being one of the few governments whose observers were allowed in the 
Yugoslav elections. With this, Russia could have seized the long-delayed 
chance to change the tragic history of that country for the better with 
impeccably legitimate means. Russian observers should have provided their 
evidence on the election results (together with other observers), and if it 
showed the first-round victory for Dr. Vojislav Kostunica (as I think it 
would), Russia should have extended him immediate recognition as the new 
Yugoslav President.

The absence of a clear Russian position, or at least some clear enunciation 
of the criteria which would guide the Kremlin's position in this crisis is as 
deplorable as it is a fairly predictable foreign policy extension of our 
domestic developments. Insofar as our government has any sustained foreign 
policy beyond its relations with the G-7 and the IMF, in Yugoslavia they have 
been clinging to the last nomenklatura regime of Eastern Europe, in the 
ugliest stage of its decay. Both Western expansionists and their strategic 
partners in Moscow badly needed this little monster in the middle of Europe - 
the former to justify their interventionism, the latter for the sake of their 
politically and financially lucrative position as occasional mediators. 
Meanwhile, the Yugoslavs withstood two mutually reinforcing agitprop machines 
- the one of their own government and another one operated by those in the 
West for whom another foreign civil war could be a vehicle to advance their 
own agendas. In these impossible circumstances, the Yugoslavs gave only 5% to 
their local brand of Zhirinovsky. These results attest to the endurance of 
the nation's common sense and rationality in spite of all the destruction and 
brainwashing, and this alone would be enough to make Yugoslavia, if military 
confrontation is avoided, the moral superpower of Europe.

Although many things are uncertain at this moment, it seems that Kostunica 
represents the current of democratic nationalism in the traditional, 
developmental sense of this word. This rising trend has substantial support 
in many countries, where there is growing discontent both with local 
nomenklaturas that have privatized the public sphere and with intrusive 
globalism of the end-of-history enthusiasts. It is too early to judge his 
specific policies, but if he succeeds to avoid a violent confrontation with 
Milosevic (which he clearly cannot win), he will have far-reaching 
opportunities for influence well beyond the borders of his country.

Dmitri Glinski Vassiliev
IMEMO RAS