[ALBSA-Info] {QIKSH «ALBEUROPA»} PRESS: Redefining Kosovo by Avni Zogiani (TOL, 30 October 2000)

[Wolfgang Plarre]

http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=5&NrSection=2&NrArticle=370&ST_max=0

Redefining Kosovo

In Kosovo's local elections the moderate, Ibrahim Rugova, has almost
certainly won the vote. But it is unlikely that his victory will mean
much immediate change for the beleaguered province. 

by Avni Zogiani 

PRISTINA--In the first democratic exercise since the end of Serbian rule
in June 1999, Kosovars went to the polls in 28 October local elections.
Ibrahim Rugova--the veteran political leader of the province and leader
of the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK)--has claimed victory in advance
of the official results, which are expected to come out early next week. 
     Belgrade greeted the news cautiously: new Yugoslav President
Vojislav Kostunica's office said that the poll was void because it
applied only to the province's majority ethnic Albanian population. The
vast majority of Kosovar Serbs--numbering around 80,000--boycotted the
vote. Turnout among ethnic Albanians was reportedly high.
     The biggest Kosovo question of all--that of the territory's future
status--was not vigorously debated during the campaign, partly because
all Kosovar Albanian parties agree that Kosovo should become
independent, and partly because of a general feeling that the issue will
be resolved outside the province's borders. Political campaigning
proceeded calmly, and there were virtually no violent incidents; the
majority of media followed a code of honor--pushed by the Organization
for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)--not to inflame the
political scene into violence. The OSCE did not dispute Rugova's claim
of victory.
     Should the vote stand, it is unlikely to immediately change the way
that Kosovo is run, as the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) will
retain most of the province's administrative power. But in the wake of
Yugoslavia's revolution, there has been renewed discussion of the status
of Kosovo. These elections are likely to be a barometer of change.

MUTED REACTION

The revolution in Belgrade was not greeted enthusiastically by ethnic
Albanians in Kosovo. Many ethnic Albanians feel abandoned by the West
and politicians fear the international community's enthusiastic response
to Kostunica's election will scupper their chances of achieving an
independent state. Kostunica has maintained that Kosovo must remain part
of Serbia.
     Most Kosovar Albanians have not hidden their contempt for
Kostunica: They remember well posters of him posing with Serb
paramilitaries and the remarks in which he said that the Bosnian Serb
massacre of Muslims in Srebrenica was committed in self-defense. Most
think that former President Slobodan Milosevic and Kostunica are cut
from the same mold. This may have been lessened somewhat though by
Kostunica's recent comments where he told the U.S. news program "60
Minutes II," a CBS broadcast, that he is "ready to ... accept the guilt
for all those people who have been killed." and that he would "take
responsibility for many of these, these crimes." Kostunica has protested
to CBS, however, that the remarks were taken out of context.
     Alarms bells were sounded in the international community on 23
October when the International Crisis Group (ICG)--an influential think
tank--published a report advising the West not to let its "newfound love
affair with Belgrade" lead Kosovo Albanians to think the province would
be returned to Serbian rule. 
     The warnings continued to resound in a study prepared by the
Independent International Commission on Kosovo--which was set up by
Swedish Prime Minister Goran Persson--for UN Secretary-General Kofi
Annan. The study concluded that the international community has a "moral
obligation" to offer Kosovar Albanians the option of "conditional
independence." Kosovo should become independent once it proves it can
guarantee minority rights and establish stable relations with its
neighbors, the commission said. Commission head Richard Goldstone--who
is former chief prosecutor of The Hague-based International War Crimes
Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia--said that "it's not realistic or
justifiable to expect the Albanians in Kosovo to accept rule from
Belgrade."
     According to Veton Surroi, a leading independent journalist and
activist in Kosovo, the return of Serbian rule to Kosovo is practical.
"I think that process is irreversibly dead. I don't see anyone accepting
Serb forces in Kosovo, any Kosovar accepting Serb forces in Kosovo,"
Surroi said. UN Security Council Resolution 1244 from June 1999--which
regulated the Serbian withdrawal from the province and the establishment
of UN administration--draws no link between democratization in Serbia
and a return of Serb forces in Kosovo, Surroi added.
     It is still unclear what the new Yugoslav president's Kosovo policy
will be. Kostunica has said that he will use the earliest opportunity to
deploy a small contingent of Serbian forces to Kosovo, as provided for
by Resolution 1244. At the same time, he has asserted that "all those
who think that Serbia has no future without Kosovo are wrong." 
     The odds are that Kostunica will behave pragmatically. With plenty
of other burning issues to deal with, he may even be grateful that the
most difficult one needs no immediate attention, as it is not exactly
under his jurisdiction.
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THE PARTIES

As far as programs are concerned, there does not seem to be much
difference between the political parties in Kosovo. All of them support
independence for the province, but in differing ways. Many fear that few
politicians or parties are capable of rising to the challenge that the
change of regime in Belgrade has presented.
     At a rally in the southwestern town of Peja on 21 October, Rugova's
main rival, Hashim Thaci, the former leader of the Kosovo Liberation
Army (UCK), accused the self-declared winner of forgetting the true
aspirations of the Kosovars. 
     "Rugova has said he wants an independent Kosovo that would have
friendly ties to both Serbia and Albania," Thaci said. "[But] he did not
meet visiting Albanian President Rexhep Meidani last year, and did not
meet Albanian Foreign Minister Paskal Milo this week. Yet, he says he is
ready to meet Kostunica." The refusal to meet Albanian leaders--coming
from a kin country--was a bad omen, Thaci implied, as was his "betrayal"
of expressing willingness to meet a Yugoslav leader. 
     Thaci--the political representative of the UCK and a key negotiator
in the Rambouillet talks in March 1999--founded his Democratic Party of
Kosovo (PDK) late last year. The Alliance for the Future of Kosovo
(AAK)--another party led by a former UCK commander and radical, Rramush
Haradinaj is also a major player. 
     These newer parties have a distinct feature--their supporters come
from the regions of their leaders. A person who would vote for AAK would
be assumed to be from Peja and the Dukagjin Plains, the area where
Haradinaj was born and his base for leading his UCK guerrillas. PDK
supporters tend to come from the Drenica valley, the central Kosovo
region that bore the brunt of earlier fighting between Serbian forces
and the UCK, and from where Thaci hails.
     Rugova's LDK has had a virtual monopoly on the Kosovar Albanian
political scene for the past decade, until the emergence of the UCK. It
has branches throughout Kosovo and experience in running political
structures as a shadow government during the 1990s. Rugova has welcomed
the shift toward more democratic rule in Belgrade, but he has not
abandoned his desire for independence. 
     The LDK has also gained a reputation of forming an elite of
educated men who have a smoother approach than the UCK leaders. Fifteen
months after the end of the war in Kosovo, Rugova's reputation does not
seem to have been harmed much by his forced meeting with former Yugoslav
President Slobodan Milosevic during the 1999 conflict. 
     After the polling, the LDK said that it had won about 68 percent of
the vote in Pristina and over 50 percent in the province's other major
cities. The LDK's likely win may suggest that Kosovar Albanians are
fairly conservative in their political affiliation and are afraid of
change. Moreover, the chaos and banditry that the former UCK leaders
presided over after the war did not exactly endear them to ordinary
Kosovar Albanians. The UCK proved incapable of generating stability.
Paradoxically, public safety, although improving recently, has been at
its all-time low since the end of Serbian rule--and the UCK is being
blamed for that.

BITTER SERB OPPOSITION

Most Serbs boycotted the vote in order to protest a new
Albanian-controlled political scene. The majority of Serbs bitterly
oppose any idea to turn Kosovo into an Albanian-dominated independent
republic, and they perceive the local elections as a means to that end.
Serbs still don't think that UNMIK police and the NATO-led troops, KFOR,
can ensure them proper protection from attacks by ethnic Albanians. They
have gathered in several enclaves in the province, away from UNMIK and
ethnic Albanian pressure. 
     If forced to choose, most Serbs would prefer that ethnic Albanians
support Rugova, as he is seen as a more moderate leader than the UCK
fighters-turned-politicians. "Serbs were comfortable in Kosovo when
Rugova's line was the dominant one," said Astrit Salihu, a philosopher
and analyst from Pristina.
     As with the distribution of Albanian votes, politics goes
hand-in-hand with geography on the Serbian side of Kosovo as well.
Oliver Ivanovic, the leader of the Mitrovica-based Serb National
Council, led the polls in Mitrovica and the northern tip of Kosovo.
Though an opponent of Milosevic, he generally plays hardball: He has
adamantly refused to cooperate with UNMIK structures.
     Near Pristina, Serbs led by Father Sava Janjic, an Orthodox priest,
have gathered at a medieval Serb monastery in a landlocked enclave
around the village of Gracanica. Janjic has followed a more moderate
path, choosing to participate in the UNMIK-led interim administrative
council. But both Ivanovic and Janjic urged Serbs not to vote.
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ECONOMIC RECOVERY STALLS

Meanwhile, Kosovo's economy is barely surviving. The Trepca complex of
40 gold and zinc mines--traditionally the mainstay of the region's
economy--is largely run-down. During the past decade, Kosovar Albanians
were fired from their state jobs as Serbs took over. The entire economy
was Serb-run and state-run. Most Kosovar Albanians survived on money
sent from relatives abroad. Things have changed little. 
     Economists agree that the province needs a quick privatization of
the state-run economic enterprises and an influx of foreign capital.
That has been stressed by the European Agency for the Reconstruction of
Kosovo. However, dilapidated facilities cannot be sold to investors
because UNMIK is not empowered by the UN Security Council Resolution on
Kosovo to sell the "property of Yugoslavia." What UNMIK can do is to
appoint managers to the cash-strapped factories or plants. That happened
recently in Trepca, when KFOR troops took over a smelting plant, saying
it was a dangerous polluter.
     On the whole, Kosovar Albanians don't think local elections will
give them enough power to solve the pressing issues of the day: the
economy, security, law, and education. Many are frustrated with the
perceived incompetence and blundering of the UNMIK administration. The
body deals only with issuing basic rules, such as organizing a
rudimentary Central Bank in the form of the Kosovo Bank Authority, and
setting regulations for detention of suspects and for collecting customs
revenues. Indeed, UNMIK has not yet resolved how to create a legislative
body that could establish rules for the development of the economy and
civil society. 
     Kosovars, both Serbian and Albanian, are distressed with the UNMIK
administration for other reasons that affect their everyday lives.
Identification cards and travel cards--which would enable Kosovars to
travel outside the country--have not yet been prepared, though UNMIK
promised their delivery before the election. Furthermore, an OSCE report
on the criminal justice system in Kosovo, published on 18 October,
observed bias against Serbs from Kosovo's predominantly ethnic Albanian
judges. Many Kosovar Albanians perceive UNMIK to be comprised of
overpaid foreigners who work slowly and achieve little.
     For now, regardless of who wins the election, the greatest fear
surrounds the gap that is being created between the Albanians and the
OSCE, UNMIK, and KFOR. "The power here is held by anybody but the
majority of the Kosovars," said a young man in Pristina. 

Avni Zogiani is a staff writer with the leading Pristina
Albanian-language daily Koha Ditore.


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