[ALBSA-Info] Moscow could prove key Kostunica ally over Kosovo

[Gazhebo at aol.com]

Moscow could prove key Kostunica ally over Kosovo

MOSCOW, Oct 8 (AFP) - 
Despite Moscow's late conversion to his cause, newly-installed Yugoslav 

President Vojislav Kostunica could find Moscow a valuable ally in Belgrade's 

battle to restore its control over Kosovo.


In his inauguration address the moderate nationalist firmly staked his claim 

to the rebel province, regarded as the birthplace of Orthodox Serbia's 

statehood but 90 percent populated by Muslim ethnic-Albanians.


The 56-year-old lawyer pledged to "protect the sovereignty, independence and 

integrity" of his country, and to ensure Kosovo fully returns to the Yugoslav 

fold.


That, and his desire to keep Western-leaning Montenegro hitched to the 

limping Yugoslav Federation, could complicate Kostunica's ties with the 

European capitals even as he tries to end Serbia's international isolation.


Analysts warn that Western euphoria over the ousting of Slobodan Milosevic 

could prove short-lived, for nationalist sentiment at home and his own 

political beliefs will limit the new Belgrade leader's room for manoeuvre.


And while President Vladimir Putin's failure to quickly recognise his victory 

saw an irritated Kostunica throw some barbs in Moscow's direction, the 

Kremlin could redeem itself by offering unwavering support over Kosovo.


And that could throw the West on the back foot, says Andrei Piontkovsky, a 

respected Moscow commentator.


"I think the Western position on Kosovo will be more vulnerable now than 

before," he said. "Russia didn't realise that in its anti-Western rhetoric 

and anti-Western manoeuvring that Kostunica was a more valuable partner than 

Milosevic," he said.


In a letter signalling Moscow's acceptance of Kostunica as Yugoslavia's new 

ruler, Putin said Friday that Moscow would "firmly and without fail speak out 

for the absolute respect of the independence, sovereignty and territorial 

integrity of the FRY."


NATO's presence in Kosovo was predicated on Milosevic's seemingly iron grip 

on power, but Western capitals will now have to grasp the nettle of returning 

the province to Belgrade and disarming Albanian secessionists.


For with the political demise of Milosevic, indicted on war crimes and crimes 

against humanity by a UN-backed international tribunal over his crackdown in 

Kosovo, the option of independence for the province appears to have receded.


"(Moscow) will be able to say to the West, you supported the democratic 

opposition, you welcomed its coming to power. So, there's a new democratic 

government in Belgrade and we should all support it," said Piontkovsky.


However, the perennial weakness of the Russian economy and the millions of 

euros the European Community is prepared to throw at a compliant Serbia could 

mean Russia fails to cash in on its principled defence of the borders of its 

historic ally, some warn.


"Western countries have a very specific plan for a small common market for 

the Balkans, in which Serbia can be included," said Sergei Markov, director 

of Moscow's Institute of Political Studies.


"The Yugoslavs voted for a Yugoslavia in Europe," he said. "They want to come 

out of isolation and be part of Europe again. So I'm absolutely sure 

Kostunica will try to build good relations with the West."


Unable to throw money at a problem, Russia will push for compromise and seek 

to use its undoubted influence in the Balkans region to keep the Yugoslav 

Federation together, with Kosovo as an integral part, he added.


"It's not the strongest position, but it is a position," said Markov, "and it 

gives Russia a role."