[ALBSA-Info] ANALYSIS-Yugoslav changes may weaken Kosovo Albanian drive

[Gazhebo at aol.com]

ANALYSIS-Yugoslav changes may weaken Kosovo Albanian drive

By Jeremy Gaunt

PRISTINA, Yugoslavia, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Ask an ethnic Albanian in the streets 
of Kosovo's capital if he thinks the apparent overthrow of Slobodan Milosevic 
in Belgrade will change anything for him and the chances are he will shrug 
and say ``No.'' 

Kosovo, the view goes among ordinary Albanian Kosovars and political leaders 
alike, has nothing to do with Serbia. For them, Kosovo is an all but 
independent country following the West's military intervention last year and 
its administration with a 40,000 strong NATO-led protection force. 

But Western analysts and Kosovo's Serbs, surveying the rapid rise to near 
power of opposition leader Vojislav Kostunica on Friday, are not so sure. 

They said the prospect of democracy arriving in Belgrade will weaken the 
ethnic Albanian drive for independence and allow more Serbian influence in 
the region, which the West says remains an integral part of Yugoslavia. 

``If you get proper change in Belgrade, you can start talking about status 
issues,'' said one Western diplomat. 

The West has insisted that Kosovo should be given broad autonomy within a 
democratic Yugoslavia. 

``What the international community will need to do is convince Albanians that 
change in Belgrade is good for all the Balkans as well as Kosovo,'' the 
diplomat said. 

END OF SERB ISOLATION? 

Oliver Ivanovic, a Kosovo Serb leader in the divided city of Mitrovica, said 
he was trying to persuade members of his embattled community that a Kostunica 
presidency would be good for the Serb future in Kosovo. 

``It is not a disaster. It is not a tragedy. They must not fear,'' he told 
Reuters. ``Perhaps it will be much better for the Serbs of Kosovo.'' 

Ivanovic said democracy in Belgrade would have two effects on the Kosovo 
Serbs, a much diminished group after angry Albanians returned from refugee 
camps and thousands of Serbs fled in fear of retribution. 

It would end the Kosovo Serbs' isolation and dampen ethnic Albanian drives 
for independence. 

``They (the Milosevic government) were ready to forget Kosovo and Kosovo 
Serbs,'' he said. ``(The new government) will be free to come here to talk. 
Serbs in Kosovo will not be alone.'' 

Ivanovic said the international community would embrace democrats in Belgrade 
and that ethnic Albanians would have a harder time achieving independence. 

DEMOCRACY CAN'T HURT 

For their part, ethnic Albanians have tried to shrug off prospects of 
democracy in Belgrade as an irrelevance to everyday life in a more or less 
independent country. 

``It could be in Romania. It's nothing to do with Kosovo. It's not part of 
our country,'' Zeka Emrlla said late on Thursday in one of central Pristina's 
growing number of trendy bars. 

It was an attitude that reflected the formal position of many of Kosovo's 
ethnic Albanian leaders. 

``Kosovo will not be part of Serbia whether it's a dictatorial Serbia or a 
democratic Serbia,'' Hashim Thaci, head of Kosovo's Democratic Party said 
recently. 

But analysts said a democratic Belgrade would change things, although not 
overnight. 

Bernard Kouchner, the international community's chief administrator in 
Kosovo, said a lot of work remained to rebuild the province but that 
democracy in Belgrade could not be a bad thing for resentful Serbs and ethnic 
Albanians. 

``It's difficult to expect a worse relationship,'' he told Reuters.