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> Subject: [alb-information] JANUSZ BUGAJSKI: Steps
> toward independence (Montenegro)
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> 
> JANUSZ BUGAJSKI: Steps toward independence
> 
> Copyright © 1999 Nando Media
> Copyright © 1999 Christian Science Monitor Service
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Web site of the Christian Science Monitor,
> source of this article.
> 
> From Time to Time: Nando's in-depth look at the 20th
> century
> 
> 
> 
> 
> (December 20, 1999 11:12 a.m. EST
> http://www.nandotimes.com) - Montenegro
> may not yet be an independent state, but it's
> increasingly acting that way.
> There is little question about the country's
> direction - but there's great
> debate over the strategy, timing, and impact of
> statehood. More than at any
> time since the disintegration of Tito's Yugoslavia,
> there is overwhelming
> consensus in the republic regarding Montenegro's
> statehood.
> 
> The psychological barrier to independence has been
> breached since NATO's
> successful war against Serbia. Recent opinion polls
> indicate that nearly 70
> percent of the population would back independence.
> While half of this number
> are committed Montenegrenists, the rest are loyal
> supporters of President
> Milo Djukanovic and will follow his lead out of the
> remnants of Yugoslavia.
> 
> The independence position is based largely on
> pragmatic grounds. Remaining
> united with Serbia assures Montenegro will be
> tethered to Slobodan
> Milosevic's sinking ship. Leaving the Serbian
> federation will reverse the
> trends of economic decline, poverty, social unrest,
> and international
> isolation - and launch Montenegro on the road to
> integration with Europe.
> 
> Most Montenegrins have few illusions about where the
> future lies - they
> don't want to remain in the continent's blank spots
> and gray zones.
> 
> Political support for independence has reached an
> important threshold.
> Djukanovic's fence-sitting has become increasingly
> untenable. The NATO
> intervention and the EU-led Balkan Stability Pact
> presented Podgorica with a
> sharper choice in which ambiguity is no longer a
> viable alternative.
> 
> During the past few years, the young government has
> acquired the resources
> not only for resisting Milosevic but also for
> escaping from his grip.
> Montenegro is more prepared than Croatia or Bosnia
> in 1991 or Kosovo in 1999
> to challenge Belgrade's domination. Diplomatically,
> politically,
> organizationally, economically, and militarily
> Podgorica can survive without
> Belgrade.
> 
> Despite initial hesitation and suspicion, a broad
> range of political
> forces - including ex-communists, old Titoists,
> democrats, conservatives,
> and nationalists - supports Djukanovic. This too is
> based on pragmatic
> calculation that the ruling team is best positioned
> to deal with Belgrade.
> 
> Slovenia, Croatia, Macedonia and other former
> Yugoslav satellites did not
> achieve independence as fully democratic states;
> neither did the Soviet
> satellites escape from Moscow as fully formed
> democracies. Montenegro is now
> in the same position.
> 
> The Djukanovic government can be a catalyst for
> independence and democracy.
> It can help ensure that statehood is constructed on
> a nonnationalist basis
> in which the country's minorities - Serbs,
> Albanians, Muslims, and Croats -
> are involved in the political process and where
> citizenship is based on
> residence, not ethnicity.
> 
> Alongside statehood, Montenegro will need to launch
> a process of economic
> transformation based on market competition,
> transparency, and legalism. This
> will not only stimulate entrepreneurship but also
> attract foreign
> investment.
> 
> Moreover, as a sovereign country, Montenegro can
> plug into regional
> reconstruction programs and move toward association
> with the EU.
> Montenegro's size could be turned into an asset -
> it's much easier to ensure
> progress among a smaller, more homogeneous
> population than within a
> cumbersome and ungovernable entity like Yugoslavia.
> 
> The strategy for independence seems clearer. In
> August, Podgorica issued a
> platform for a loose confederation with Serbia.
> Belgrade has ignored the
> offer. Montenegrin officials now assert the platform
> timetable is fast
> expiring. Its rejection will leave Podgorica with
> only one option: full
> independence.
> 
> Podgorica is running out of short steps and must
> soon take a big leap. Plans
> are under way to hold a national referendum within
> five months.
> 
> Djukanovic's critics charge that he has deliberately
> delayed independence in
> expectation that Milosevic will be dislodged by the
> Serbian opposition and
> that a new political agreement can then be forged.
> But such a prospect has
> become redundant, given the abject failure of Serb
> democracy and the
> collapsing economy of the Yugoslav federation.
> 
> Observers continue to guess Milosevic's next moves
> in Montenegro. Aside from
> surrendering Montenegro altogether, the Serb czar
> has three violent options:
> a military coup and occupation; the promotion of
> regional and ethnic
> conflicts; or the launching of a full-scale civil
> war.
> 
> Though these options are likely to fail, it doesn't
> guarantee Belgrade won't
> attempt to destabilize Montenegro in order to
> prevent its separation.
> 
> More likely, Milosevic will engage in low-level
> provocations, intimidations,
> and even assassinations to unbalance the Montenegrin
> leadership. He will
> endeavor to sow conflict within the governing
> coalition, heat up tensions in
> the Sandjak region of Montenegro by pitting Muslims
> against Orthodox
> Christians, and threaten to partition northern
> Montenegro if Podgorica
> pushes toward statehood.
> 
> In this ominous environment, Western states can
> pursue several paths to
> strengthen Montenegrin democracy and head off a
> Serbian assault.
> 
> Financial help for the monetary system, coupled with
> a reconstruction
> program for a nation of only 640,000 will not be
> expensive, but it will
> increase public trust in the embattled government
> and undercut the
> destructive forces loyal to Belgrade.
> 
> Assistance for institutional restructuring, media
> development, and
> multiethnic cooperation to avert a war is preferable
> to reassembling them
> after a war as the international community is trying
> to do in Kosovo. And
> above all else, Milosevic must become fully aware
> that any strike against
> Montenegro will be his last battle. NATO leaders
> should make sure that he
> gets the message by preparing contingency plans to
> militarily help the
> Montenegrin authorities in case of a Serbian attack.
> 
> Janusz Bugajski, director of East European studies
> at the Center for
> Strategic and International Studies, in Washington,
> has just returned from
> Montenegro.
> 
> 
> (c) Copyright 1999. The Christian Science Publishing
> Society
> 
> 
> 
>
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