[AKI-News] Kosova: Independence, on the Table, but Off the Agenda

[AKI News]

Advocates for Kosova's Independence (AKI)
December 31, 2001

=================================
  ** AKI Newsletter, Issue 5 **
=================================

With the close of 2001 and the creation of new institutions in Kosova, we
are enclosing a brief report from the U.S. Institute of Peace in Washington,
DC.  We urge the United States Senate and House of Representatives to remain
involved and follow through with the goal of establishing stability and
pursuing justice in Kosova and Bosnia.  During the past two years, the
European Union (EU) has not created any acceptable options for Kosova's
Albanians.  U.S. leadership on developing long-term plans for Kosova is
imperative.

We wish you a Happy New Year and hope that, together, the new year will
bring peace and a future to those deprived of their freedom and human
rights.

Sincerely,
AKI Team

--

USIP REPORT
Independence, on the Table, But Off the Agenda
December 20, 2001

Despite Rugova's immediate post-election declaration of the goal of
independence, the Albanians know that final status will not be decided by
the parliament. Polls show that the electorate give immediate priority to
jobs and education. But because Albanians view the process of
self-government and democratic institution building as earning Kosovo's
independence, the possibility of independence must remain on the table. If
that hope is extinguished, violence will again erupt.

The international community's policy of deliberate ambiguity and the need to
settle Kosovo's final status creates political tensions between the two and
sets up practical contradictions that inhibit good governance. This
ambiguity has already caused  problems for privatization and will make it
difficult for Kosovo to establish the relationships it needs for trade and
investment as well as border controls with its neighbors.

In the past, the Balkans, in general, and Kosovo, in particular, have been
managed by "crisis diplomacy." Future efforts in the region should focus on
establishing stability and eliminating uncertainty. Developing a framework
for an eventual settlement on a regional basis would help avoid a return to
crisis diplomacy. There are no ideal solutions--independence efforts may
lead to partition, which in turn could lead to further conflict. With the
assistance of the international community, Belgrade and Pristina will have
to negotiate a final status. Doubtless it will be a difficult process, which
will require further democratization in both capitals and involve
acknowledging mutual past wrongs.

The United States must not cede the final status issue to Europe, which
would be tempted to sweep it under the rug or worse. Especially after
September 11, the United States should remain engaged in an issue of great
importance to a secular, pro-Western and largely Muslim community. Moreover
in light of the potential for further instability in southern Serbia and in
Macedonia, the United States needs to ensure a satisfactory outcome for
Kosovo.


http://www.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf/480fa8736b88bbc3c12564f6004c8ad5/c6fed514
589022ebc1256b210036cbb1?OpenDocument

Source: US Institute of Peace
Date: 12 Dec 2001

Kosovo: Time for self-governance

This week, the parliament met for the first time in Pristina, Kosovo, to
select a president and to begin forming a government. Though its final
status remains uncertain, Kosovo is heading down the path towards
self-governance. The United States and the European Union have bet heavily
on establishing democracy in Kosovo. What are the prospects for this
outcome?

The first "free and fair" multi-party parliamentary elections ever held in
Kosovo were conducted under the supervision of the international
administration on November 17. Less than two and a half years after the end
of the NATO-Yugoslavia war and more than a year after municipal elections
held in October 2000, the parliamentary elections were intended to establish
the framework for substantial autonomy and meaningful self-government as set
down in United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244. Although the United
Nations retain substantial powers, the formation of parliament and the
selection of a president and prime minister starts the process of Kosovo
self-governance.

On Thursday, December 7, 2001, the U.S. Institute of Peace organized a
Balkans Working Group meeting to discuss next steps in post-election Kosovo.
Although the discussion was off the record and not for attribution, this
Newsbyte summarizes its main points.

Despite Insecurity for Serbs, the Elections Were Successful

The elections should be deemed a success by virtue of the following
criteria:

- Turnout: due to a major outreach effort, the registered electorate this
year cast 100,000 more ballots than it did last year. Overall, however the
vote was down from 79 percent in last year election to 65 percent in this
year's.
- Serb participation: of those residing in Kosovo 47 percent voted, among
those displaced to Serbia, 57 percent voted.
- Violence: virtually no political violence occurred during the election
period.
- Complaints: on election day last year, 127 complained; only 44 complained
this year, and no one disputed the results.
- Inclusivity: women represent 28 percent of parliamentary deputies; Serbs,
18 percent--the third largest group in Parliament; other minorities, 2.6
percent.

Although international supervision will be needed through next year's
municipal elections, the electoral process is helping to turn Kosovo from
violence to politics.

Coalition Government, but How Wide?

The proportional electoral system applied in Kosovo, which reserved some
seats for Serbs and other minorities, was designed to stimulate coalition
formation. With 46 percent, the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) received
the largest percentage of votes. LDK leader Ibrahim Rugova is widely
expected to be chosen by the parliament as Kosovo's president, but his party
will not be able to govern alone. Rugova's rival, Hashim Thaci and his
Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), polled second, with 26 percent of the
vote, but the LDK and PDK have a sometimes history of violent competition. A
coalition consisting of the LDK and Ramush Haradinaj's Alliance for the
Future of Kosovo, which polled third amongst ethnic Albanian parties with 8
percent, is also possible. Minorities other than Serbs are expected to join
whatever coalition is formed. The LDK is unlikely to form a coalition with
the Serbs. One ministry is to be reserved respectively for the Serbs and for
other minorities.

Some working group participants thought Kosovo would benefit from leadership
by a relatively narrow coalition led by the LDK. Such an arrangement would
leave a major Albanian party in loyal opposition, presumably the PDK. Other
participants preferred a "grand coalition," comprising all the parties and
ethnic groups.

Can it Govern?

The UN governing presence in Kosovo, UNMIK, will pass to the new Kosovo
government 70-80 percent of the government functions it now currently
exercises. The Special Representative of the Secretary General, however,
will retain substantial residual powers, including veto power and control
over security, the judiciary, and the budget. Retaining authority over the
budget will doubtless frustrate the new government, since the parliament
will have the authority to create programs but not the authority to fund
them.

Key obstacles to effective self-governance include:

- Lack of experience with political pluralism;
- Efforts by some in Belgrade to reestablish its authority;
- Bad blood between Albanian and Serb parliamentarians stemming from the
Serb dissolution of Kosovo's Albanian-dominated parliament in 1990;
- International reluctance to allow the parliament to make its own mistakes;
and
- Security for Serb members of parliament.

Meanwhile Europe appears more reluctant than the United States to allow the
new government full powers of self-governance. Foot-dragging on this issue
will lead to severe tensions between the Kosovo and UNMIK.

The main challenges for the parliament include:

- Gaining the above residual authorities from UNMIK;
- Drawing a road map to a reach a decision about Kosovo's final status; and
- Opening a dialogue and developing a relationship with Belgrade.

It was also suggested that the new government establish an office in
Washington.

Independence, on the Table, But Off the Agenda

Despite Rugova's immediate post-election declaration of the goal of
independence, the Albanians know that final status will not be decided by
the parliament. Polls show that the electorate give immediate priority to
jobs and education. But because Albanians view the process of
self-government and democratic institution building as earning Kosovo's
independence, the possibility of independence must remain on the table. If
that hope is extinguished, violence will again erupt.

The international community's policy of deliberate ambiguity and the need to
settle Kosovo's final status creates political tensions between the two and
sets up practical contradictions that inhibit good governance. This
ambiguity has already caused problems for privatization and will make it
difficult for Kosovo to establish the relationships it needs for trade and
investment as well as border controls with its neighbors.

In the past, the Balkans, in general, and Kosovo, in particular, have been
managed by "crisis diplomacy." Future efforts in the region should focus on
establishing stability and eliminating uncertainty. Developing a framework
for an eventual settlement on a regional basis would help avoid a return to
crisis diplomacy. There are no ideal solutions--independence efforts may
lead to partition, which in turn could lead to further conflict. With the
assistance of the international
community, Belgrade and Pristina will have to negotiate a final status.

Doubtless it will be a difficult process, which will require further
democratization in both capitals and involve acknowledging mutual past
wrongs.

The United States must not cede the final status issue to Europe, which
would be tempted to sweep it under the rug or worse. Especially after
September 11, the United States should remain engaged in an issue of great
importance to a secular, pro-Western and largely Muslim community. Moreover
in light of the potential for further instability in southern Serbia and in
Macedonia, the United States needs to ensure a satisfactory outcome for
Kosovo.

The United States Institute of Peace is mandated by Congress to strengthen
the nation's capabilities to promote the peaceful resolution of
international conflict.

The views summarized here reflect the discussion at the meeting; they do not
represent formal positions taken by the Institute, which does not advocate
specific policies.

###

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